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Monday, 02 December 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN Q1 AND Q3 DELIVERIES ARE VERY MARGINAL


COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14  delivery gained $ 1.67 pmt month on month on Friday 29 November 2013. The Indonesian coal swaps for average Q1’ 2014 gained on day, week and month, according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports released last Friday.

Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia coal swap for (average) Q1’ 14 delivery was closed at US$ 61.97 per MT or US$ 1.07 higher compared to the a week ago closing.

DSP of SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps - Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia Coal
Q3' 2014 delivery for the sub-bit Indonesia's coal swap was closed at US$ 61.85 per MT on 29 November 2013, US$ 0.75 higher than last Friday (22 November 2013) price or US$ 0.28 higher than D-D. The average Q4’ 14 delivery price gain on day, week and on month.

Coal swap for Q3’ 14, delivery gained D-D and W-W and M-M.



Asia Clear OTC Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap for average Q3’ 14 delivery closed just US$ 0.12 (0.19%) higher compared to average Q1’ 2014 delivery price of US$ 61.97 on 29 November 2013.  The closing price difference between Q1 and Q3 was very marginal and not showing any positive move in 2014. In the meantime, the average Q4’ 14 coal swap has closed US$ 0.23 (0.37%) higher than Q1’ 2014 swap for the same period. Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia coal swap for second half of next year moving almost flat.

Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2014 gained US$ 0.22 (0.35 %) and US$ 1.07 (1.75 %) on D-D and W-W respectively. Q4’ 14 delivery price has gained US$ 0.23 (0.37 %) on D-D on 29 November.

The sub-bit Indonesia's coal swap for Q1’ 2014 delivery has achieved highest price (US$ 61.97/ MT) on 29 November 2013. In the meantime, swap has reached its lowest level (US$ 61.25/ MT) on 25 November 2013.

Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (delivery Q3’ 2014) up on day, week and month.

Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia coal swap movement in year 2014 is not promising and struggling to catch up the grip. The price differences between Q1 and Q3 or Q1 and Q4 are still lesser than a dollar per mt. If the market continues on this trend, then the 2014 coal market may move flat without any significant improvements. This coal price disadvantage on favor of producers start mid of last year and seems to be continue next year.

According to Centre for Global Energy Studies, the present oil demand trends and projected supply growth indicate that up to the end of 2014 a decline in nominal crude oil prices is more likely.

Wil the forecasted a decline in nominal crude oil prices in 2014, influence coal prices in 2014?

The above article is subject to SGX’s and COALspot.com’s disclaimer clauses.



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