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Thursday, 21 November 13
CAPESIZE : THE DOWNWARD TREND HAS TURNED INTO NOTABLE SPOT AND PERIOD IMPROVEMENT - FEARNLEYS


Handy
The Atlantic market experienced a general rate increase for most trades this week. More cargoes in the market and chrts looking for prompt tonnage to cover their USG loadings had a tough time getting cvrd. In the eastern hemisphere the rates have remained firm this week. Supported by large volume on Indo nickel ore and bauxite, rates have been reported at around USD 17/18k levels. The bauxite trade is largely affected by the new export tax being implemented in 2014 which will most likely slow down the volume for same. Indo/India runs are being rated in the mid teens by ships open N.China and same levels for NoPac rounds. Short periods are being fixed in region of USD 12-13k.

Panamax
The Panamax rates dropped in both hemispheres this week. With a slow demand and vessels being ballasted from Pacific into the USG, rates continue to drop for December loading. Spot rates at around USD 50pmt for USG/China vs a January stem being fixed at USD 46pmt this week shows little faith in Q1. Although FFA values are trading up at time of writing, it would seem this is a consequence of the bigger Capes experiencing a firming tendency. TA´s are now being fixed in region of 10/11k depending on delivery while Pac rounds are being fixed in the 9´s. The period market is more or less none existing although one LME got fixed for 1 year at USD 11,300 for Feast delivery.

Capesize
Triggered by healthy far east demand and improving FFA levels – and nothing else - the downward trend has turned into notable spot and period improvement. Due to sudden need for early loaders on the WAust/China ore trade, values of Far East rounds have jumped almost 10% to come in at usd 19k. Although at smaller scale, a similar situation for pacific coal trades has contributed to stop a negative spiral and maintain average earnings flat at just under usd 19k w-o-w. Atlantic is best described as uncertain, and increased cargo volume in this area is badly needed for any further general improvement to happen. Although little actually concluded, period levels are up on average some usd 750/day on back of paper improvement.
source: Fearnresearch



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