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Wednesday, 23 October 13
MARKET SENTIMENT IN THE DRY BULK SECTOR REMAINS POSITIVE - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 Market sentiment in the dry bulk sector remains positive despite the latest correction in freight rates for the Capesize sector, which are sliding from their recent peak of USD 42k per day down to today’s levels of USD 28k per day, said Yannis Olziersky, SnP Broker, from Intermodal.
In addition to the strong Capesize market, which found support from the recent Chinese restocking and strong demand for iron ore, chartering activity for the other segments has also improved and is surging on the back of increased shipments of grains from the US Gulf and the Black Sea.
According to Intermodal's weekly report, The dry bulk market, it seems, is witnessing a U-turn in fate; bullishness, although restrained, has return to many market players since to them it appears as if the worst phase is now behind us and the market is expected to advance at a faster pace compared to that of last year. This restrained optimism has had its impact on second hand sales as well as on the new building market, as a significant number of vessels are changing hands at prices well above last done deals and sometimes well above Sellers’ ideas, due to the fact that competition between Buyers, in an effort to secure tonnage, is driving values well above recent levels.
Same story with the new building market, where slots at good shipyards are now scarce and offered prices have surged and are about 10-15pct higher compared to orders that were placed during 1H of 2013.
What will happen next? Are we on a firm recovery track or were the latest positive developments in freight rates based only on a typical seasonal spike? Having foresight in a volatile industry like shipping, which is highly dependent on so many different parameters, is difficult and dangerous to do.
Yannis Olziersky added in his research report that, on the other hand there are some irrefutable facts which cannot be overlooked. Seaborne commodities have increased about 6pct compared to last year; fleet growth increased about 5.8pct (year to date), which is the lowest we have seen during the last couple of years. Taking also into consideration that the world economy is on a recovery phase and that the global GDP is projected to increase at a higher rate compared to previous years it is expected that dry bulk commodities will keep trading at higher volumes compared to 2013.
At the same time it is expected that today’s rates will face a correction once Chinese iron ore inventories are replenished and the strong grain season comes to an end, he commended. There is no doubt that the market does not have the ability to grow at the same pace we experienced the past couple of months since the overcapacity issue is still there and uncertainty over the global economy remains despite better forecasts.
However, what is more important to note is that dry bulk fundamentals are expected to improve and as a result the average earnings for the years ahead look to be better compared to previous ones. Hence, taking a long term perspective and in the event that the global economy will remain firm on its recovery path, the demolition market keeps active and the new building ordering will hold near its current pace (i.e. at a more moderate pace compared with booming years), we see substantial signs to be optimistic and expect to have an overall upside in freight rates over the coming years, Yannis Olziersky concluded.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 November 13
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY'S RISING WATER CHALLENGE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Water poses a variety of business risks for the energy industry, and could play an influential role in shaping the future energy supply mix, accordi ...
Thursday, 07 November 13
HANDY : INDO/CHINA ROUNDS ARE SEEING BIDS AT AROUND $16K
Handy
In the Atlantic we have seen more activity this week with several fixtures being concluded at firm rates. USG/Feast been reported at 30k and ...
Wednesday, 06 November 13
THE BIGGER SIZE SEGMENTS LOST GROUND WHILE SUPRAS AND HANDIES HELD ON TO THEIR GAINS - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Stable- )
A mirror image of the week prior for the Dry Bulk market, as once more the bigger size segments los ...
Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
"While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has ...
Tuesday, 05 November 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SEES DROP IN COAL EXPORTS W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 4, Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.77 m ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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