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Friday, 18 October 13
WOOD MACKENZIE FORECASTS CHINA WILL OUTWEIGH THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR BASE METALS DEMAND BY 2017
 China set to account for 52% of 117mt base metals market by 2017
China is on track to exceed rest of the World demand by 2017, becoming the single largest consumer of base metals. According to Wood Mackenzie’s latest base metals demand forecasts, China will account for 52% of base metals demand by 2017, compared with 46% of the 96 million tonnes (Mt) global base metals market in 2013. While China’s lower GDP targets are reflected in lower demand growth for base metals on a percentage basis over the next five years versus the last half decade, the research firm says that China will maintain its dominance and the outlook for Chinese base metals demand is slower not lower.
Helen Matthews, Head of Base Metals Markets research for Wood Mackenzie says; “Our forecasts for the next five years show that across all of the base metals – aluminium, copper, lead, nickel and zinc – growth in demand will come predominately from China. Demand growth has slowed from the double digits we saw from 2008 to 2013 to single digits - ranging from five to eight percent – however, it’s important to note that in absolute tonnage terms we still see significant numbers.”
Wood Mackenzie says that the global base metals market is set to grow from 96Mt in 2013 to 122 Mt in 2018, with a huge shift set to occur in 2017; “Today, the Rest of the World, excluding China, accounts for 54% of the global base metals market however, as we’re seeing with many other commodities, China’s rampant appetite will overtake the rest of the World, growing to 52% of demand in a 117Mt market.”
Wood Mackenzie’s economic analysis points to the drivers behind this growth as Jonathan Butcher, Senior Economist for Wood Mackenzie explains; “While there are a number of factors behind growth in demand for each base metal, a key theme for China is continued urbanisation and rising domestic wealth. Wood Mackenzie’s proprietary China Activity Index tracks a number of factors, and gives us confidence that economic growth will remain strong in the short term. Looking out to 2030, we see a bright future for Chinese commodity demand. Urbanisation rates will reach 70%, compared to just under half of the population in 2013. This will have a widespread impact on the economy over the next 20 years, with electricity consumption per capita forecast to reach the same level as Korea today.”
Matthews adds; “Our analysis shows that the outlook for key demand drivers is positive, with a firm emphasis on Asia.”
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 16 October 13
NEW STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING COAL INDUSTRY
The 12th Annual Coal Markets assumes even more significance as the industry seeks more market information, inputs on trade strategies, supply and de ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
CAPES: RATES DROPPED; PANAMAX: ADVANCED - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of straight weekly positive closings, the BDI has finished the week in the red. Monday started slow as holidays in the East ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or jus ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
KOSEP TO IMPORT 0.49 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL FOR JAN - FEB '14
COALspot.com - Korea South-East Power Co., a Korean generator and distributor of electricity on behalf of five Korean Gencos intends to procure 490, ...
Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research anal ...
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