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Friday, 18 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON "PAUSE" MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The dry bulk market has been on "pause" mode over the past week, after China's return from the week long holidays. The industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index stood yesterday at 1,960 points, having shedded just five points over the previous session. The biggest gainer was the Supramax market, with the respective index rising by 87 points to reach 1,206. The Capesize market was down by 27 points to 3,451 (Baltic Capesize Index). As far as the Panamax market was concerned, the Baltic Panamax Index was up by 29 points.

In a report this week, shipbroker Fearnleys noted on the Capesize market that "a slow start to the week with holidays around in Far East, but in spite of this, rates are again moving upwards. West Australia to China, having been the main driver in the Pacific market for some time now, is presently in mid/upper 11s. Fronthaul is more or less none existing and back haul cargoes can be developed, but not at rates attractive to owners time being. Period market is not too active, as owners remain optimistic expecting rates to improve further and rates their ships accordingly", it said.

On the Panamax market, Fearnleys noted that "some holidays early week led to low activity with a firm undertone in the Atlantic and slightly negative trend in the Eastern Hemisphere. Charterers have had to pay up for prompt orders in the North Atlantic, from 18k and even well above 20k for short runs, whereas regular T/A´s from Med hovers in the 18k range. The Atlantic still seems to be tight for tonnage with a fair flow of requirements to be covered before the winter season kicks in. Fronthaul fixtures at very high 20´s. A bigger spread on levels in the Far East as most players where in a standoff mode early in the week. Rounds done from 15k up to 20k depending on duration, spec´s and delivery. Nopac rounds falling from 17k mid-week. Period business limited, but supported by a gradually positive forward curve 1-year has been concluded at 13k delivery Far East and well above 16 with Atlantic delivery", it said.

Finally, in the Handy markets, "activities were obviously slowed down in the Pacific basin. There were only few coal movements which fixed around USD 15-16k for ships in Singapore via Indo to China also ECI. Nopac round were fixed mid USD 12k and around USD 12k for short period. There were several public holidays so just limited fresh inquiries in the market this week. While there are a hundred of ships expected to open in north China. ECI lack of cargoes therefor vessels are ballasting to Spore more. However, have seen S.Afr coming firm with rate over 10k+400k gbb for trip to Feast", Fearnleys concluded.

Meanwhile, the future of the market and more importantly the latest rally's longevity will depend, in part, by the rate of demolition activity. According to shipbroker's Golden Destiny latest report said that the demolition market "has finally turned into positive with India recovering from its serious currency issues and the losses in steel prices. Bangladesh also follows with a rebound in steel prices by competing hard with Alang shipbreakers, while. Pakistan seems to have been left behind as it has still issues with its Rupee. Benchmark scrap prices in India subcontinent region are now up by $25-$35/ldt from the end of August for dry and wet cargo.

In China, benchmark scrap prices are still holding firm from the end of August, by standing at $35-$45/ldt lower levels than the prices in Indian subcontinent region for dry/general cargo and $50-$60/ldt lower levels for wet cargo. The Chinese National Holidays during the first week of October brought little action with one handysize bulker emerged for disposal in China at this week, M/V “WELLY II” of 10,308ldt built 1982 for about $365/ldt", Golden Destiny said.

According to the shipbroker "demolition activity (in terms of reported number of transactions): 20% down week-on-week showing 150% and 100%weekly increase in the volume of tanker and container disposals respectively, with 13% weekly decline in bulker disposals and 80% weekly decline in liner disposals.

The largest activity is recorded in the bulk carrier and tanker segments by holding 44% and 31% share respectively of the total demolition activity, against 13% share from liners.
In terms of deadweight sent for scrap, there has been 33% weekly increase with some scrapping activity in large vessel size categories, 1 aframax tanker, 1 panamax bulker and 1 small panamax container reported for disposal.

India is reportedly to have won 9 of the 16 demolition transactions, Bangladesh 3, Pakistan 1, China 1, Turkey 1, 1 vessel disposal reported at an undisclosed destination.

Benchmark scrap prices in the Indian subcontinent region: $385-$395/ldt for dry and $415-$425/ldt for wet cargo. Scrap prices in China hover at $350/ldt for dry and $365/ldt for wet cargo. At a similar week in 2012, demolition activity was up by 31%, in terms of the reported number of transactions, when 21 vessels had been reported for scrap of total deadweight 1,173,447 tons with 13 disposals for bulkers, 3 for tankers, 3 for containers and 2 reefers. Ship-breakers in Indian subcontinent region had been offering $405-$410/ldt for dry and $435-$440/ldt for wet cargo" the shipbroker concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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