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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 20 September 13
US COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 20.30 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 20 September 13
COLOMBIA SHIPPED 31.14 MILLION TONS OF THERMAL COAL IN H1
COALspot.com : Colombia’s coal exports fell by 20.59 percent in June 2013 compared to Colombia’s May's export of 7,633,579 MT.
Colom ...
Thursday, 19 September 13
CAPESIZE : AVERAGE DAILY EARNINGS HAVE GAINED ALMOST USD 6K WOW - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The rates in Feast are still firm this week even the activity calmed down a bit as chrtrs are not in a rush to cover even their end Sept carg ...
Wednesday, 18 September 13
IRON ORE AND ZINC ARE BEST PERFORMING MINING SECTORS IN CURRENT LOW PRICE, HIGH COST ENVIRONMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
With the fall in commodity prices, cash margins in the mining industry have come under pressure. Accordingly, producers and investors are placing in ...
Wednesday, 18 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET CONTINUED TO ADVANCE - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk market continued to advance at a very fast pace, with the BDI closing off the week north ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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