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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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