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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
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