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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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