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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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