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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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