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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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