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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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