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Friday, 11 October 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATE POSITIVE MOMENTUM TO BE SUPPORTED BY HIGHER DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
BIMCO released its latest short term research on the shipping markets, estimating that the elevated level of Capesize TC average rates is fragile, but forecasts rates to stay around USD 20,000-35,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will settle in at USD 8,500-15,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 9,500-13,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to continue with low volatility in the interval of USD 7,500-9,500 per day.
According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Mr. Peter Sand, "entering the fourth quarter of 2013, our optimism is intact and demand expected to remain supportive to freight rates; maybe not at levels as strong as the recent Capesize peak, but we are certain that Q4 will return the highest average of any quarter in 2013. In 2013, Chinese steel production has gone up more than 6% every month compared to the same month last year, and iron ore imports have followed suit. Imports of iron ore totalled 69 million tonnes in August 2013, a small step down from the record high of July, but still the second-highest this year so far. The large production of steel also meant increasing amounts of steel exports – handing improved opportunities for better back-haul trade to owners and operators" he said.
According to the report, "the historical seasonality, as well as the current solid demand for long hauls of iron ore and grains going from the Atlantic into the Pacific, makes a believable case. In combination with a steady delivery scheme that will slow down even further next year, we are on course for an improved market balance. The tables may have turned already, despite the slowdown in demolition activity. Nevertheless, it remains fundamental that demand needs to exceed supply in order to improve the market balance, a balance that is affected largely by the widespread application of slow steaming", BIMCO said.
It added on its outlook of the dry bulk market that "when freight rates go up, slow steaming is likely to be amongst the first “sacrifices” because of narrow considerations regarding bunker costs. Stronger rates could spur owners and operators to speed up to cater for increased demand. The path back to higher levels of utilization is paved with volatile freight rates that are backed-up by a higher and higher “rate-floor” that eventually brings around sustainable earnings across the board once again. The fact is that the active fleet is capable of catering to a much higher level of demand than at present if normal service speed is applied in the market place", BIMCO noted.
SUPPLY
Supply-wise, BIMCO noted that "while freight rates headed North, demolition volumes went South. This has led BIMCO to revise the demolition forecast for 2013 downwards. Because of unchanged expectations to deliveries, the fleet growth for 2013 is now one percentage-point higher than previously at 6.7%. In the first half of 2013, a monthly average of 2.2 million DWT was demolished, but the third quarter of the year has only seen demolished tonnage to the tune of 1.1 million DWT (monthly average). This revision proves how sensitive the supply side is when it comes to lifting the foot off the demolition throttle. an almost complete stop, with just six ships at an average age of 24 years sold to the breakers since 1 July. The total order-book is moving sideways these days, with new contracts and newbuilds matching each other. Half of all new capacity ordered is for Capesize tonnage, which is quite a comeback in terms of interest for this oversupplied segment", BIMCO's report said.
Actually, Capesize tonnage is in such high demand that the total 2013 orders now surpass the combined Capesize orders in 2011 and 2012. "The lion’s share of the new contracts are set for 2015 delivery. 46 million DWT delivered and 17 million DWT leaving the fleet means that the overall dry bulk fleet has increased by 4.4% in 2013. For the Capesize segment, demolition activity has naturally come to an almost complete stop, with just six ships at an average age of 24 years sold to the breakers since 1 July.
The renewed optimism in dry bulk shipping has also resulted in Panamax newbuilding prices leaving the floor to go higher – as the last segment to do so. A 77,000 DWT Panamax can now be contracted at USD 26.5 million, whereas a 180,000 DWT Capesize inched higher.
last week to reach USD 49 million, according to Intermodal. Having said that, Panamax orders are almost out of fashion, with just 59 new contracts for 4.8 million DWT signed in 2013. It follows the pattern of Capesizes that only saw 36 new contracts made in 2012 when that market bottomed out", the report noted.
DEMAND
Demand-wise, BIMCO noted that it's been a joyride for Capesize owners in September. During that month, freight rates lifted from the USD 10,000-15,000 per day interval experienced from mid-June until the beginning of September, when the market caught fire in a big way. Then, rates climbed all the way to their peak on 25 September at USD 42,211 per day. Since then, they have backtracked somewhat, but are still hovering at very healthy levels, covering all the costs that are borne by owners and operators: OPEX, finance cost, depreciation and additionally, leaving some returns on equity as well for Capesize vessels. This has not been the case since December 2011. So what happened? Brazil came back strongly by lifting its share of the growing iron ore market from 13.0% in June to 19.7% in August – bringing it back to normal – while Australian exports stagnated. Given that there is a factor of 3 in sailing distances between Australia and Brazil, such a shift matters. The so-called “silent stimulus” from China and accompanying excessive lending at a point when iron ore prices had reached a low, caused steel mills to restock, as steel production also surged.
The record high steel production in August/September caused HRC steel prices to slide slowly during September. It may be an indicator of demand for tonnage easing off somewhat. This is backed by data from Commodore Research, showing that the number of vessels charted to ship iron ore to China peaked by mid-September, leaving the following weeks with lower activity levels", BIMCO noted.
It added that "during the September rally in the Capesize segment, the Capesize/Panamax freight rate ratio broke the 2.3 mark, making charterers split Capesize cargoes in two Panamax vessels if possible. This effect made the pulse in the Panamax market beat faster, bringing around a doubling of freight rates to just shy of USD 14,500 per day by end-September. Increased demand for coal has also proved to be a catalyst behind the recent upturn. The power plants of the world have taken advantage of the lower coal prices on the world market to run low stock due to oversupplied markets and import at lower prices when in need. The oversupply of coal in the Pacific Basin has squeezed out some of the strong levels of US coal exports we saw in the first quarter, reducing the positive effect on shipping demand from these long sailing distances", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 03 October 13
INDONESIA AUGUST COAL EXPORTS FALL 12.90 % FROM JULY TO 30.71 MIL MT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the 15th largest economy in world, 4th largest coal producer in world and world's largest multi grade coal exporter ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
TOP FOUR U.S. COAL COMPANIES SUPPLIED MORE THAN HALF OF U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2011 - EIA
In the past two years, more than half of U.S. coal production was attributable to the top four coal producers, the result of changes in regional pro ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
HANDY: PERIOD MARKET STAND IN GOOD POSITION - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore and Bauxite was active last week but slowed down now due to Chinese holidays. Ships opened in North China fixed at US$ 11-13k leve ...
Wednesday, 02 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS UPWARD DIRECTION
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+)
Despite the fact that rates for Capes didn't continue their crazy ride this past week, the Dry Bulk market ...
Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with t ...
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Showing 4086 to 4090 news of total 6871 |
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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