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Tuesday, 08 October 13
CHINA: INTENSE COMPETITION AMONG DOMESTIC COAL MINERS AS 2013 IMPORT DEMAND REMAINS STRONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Prices will not fall under RMB500/t or risk supply availability to the coastal market
Despite China's lower economic growth, Wood Mackenzie says that import demand will still meet previous high expectations, although overall demand growth will be lower. This is due to lower seaborne coal prices compared to domestic coal prices in coastal China. As such, domestic producers are competing for market share by lowering prices in spite of negative margins. This explains the recent continuous drop in Chinese coal prices. However, Wood Mackenzie says that coastal China coal prices will be supported at *RMB500 per tonne (t) as at this price level 40% of domestic supply operates at negative margins.
China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth has slowed from 9.3% to 7.5% from 2011 to 2013. As a result, power demand growth has slowed in China and coal demand in coastal provinces has remained flat, staying at 2011 levels of 1.2 billion tonnes(Bt). In contrast, seaborne demand increased rapidly - This year, Wood Mackenzie expects China to import 235Mt of thermal and 67Mt of metallurgical coal, up from 168Mt and 31Mt respectively in 2011. This translates to a growth in share of seaborne imports into coastal China from 17% to about 25% between 2011 to 2013.
Wood Mackenzie's Senior Analyst Coal Market Research, Mr. Prakash Sharma says, "The trend of increased coal imports has been aided by weak coal prices in the international market. This means that Chinese coal import demand is almost entirely driven by the competitiveness of imported versus domestic supply. As such, large Chinese miners are adopting volume strategy by producing more to bring down operating costs and pricing lower to maintain market share."
These measures will hold market share in the short-term but may be counter-effective if prices fall too low in coastal China. Therefore we believe prices find a floor at RMB500/t. Small to medium sized domestic players will be most affected due to relatively high fixed labour costs and mine safety expenses in China. Large producers such as Shenhua and China Coal, who have resorted to aggressive pricing, contribute almost 50% of China's domestic coal production. The remainder 50% comes from the small to medium size miners.
Rohan Kendall, Senior Analyst for Coal Supply Research, says, "At RMB 500/t, we estimate that 40% of China's thermal coal production will produce at negative margins. Small to medium sized producers operating at negative margins, particularly those producing low-energy coal, face a real risk of mine closures. The situation may also trigger further consolidation of small loss-making mines in China."
Summarizing, Mr Sharma says, "The 40% of domestic production producing at negative margins equates to about 150% of the size of the current seaborne market. Full replacement volumes cannot feasibly be sourced from imports without creating a price response that will actually incentivise domestic miners to remain in production. Therefore, we believe prices will be supported above RMB 500/t, turning the tide on the current price trend."
*All prices refer to benchmark FOB Qinghuangdao Thermal coal price (5500 kcal/kg NAR basis) inclusive of 17% VAT.
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world's energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research anal ...
Tuesday, 15 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 6.50% MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 6.50 per cent week on week to 3.19 million mt for ...
Monday, 14 October 13
MEMR OF INDONESIA SETS THE COAL'S SPOT PRICE AT US$ 76.61 FOR OCT'13 DELIVERY
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised down government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 0.28/ MT to US$ 76.61 for October 2013 d ...
Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's Pres ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
Q4'13 DELIVERY SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP FALLS SEVEN STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 1.72 percept month on month on Friday 11 October 201 ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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