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Tuesday, 01 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET POISED FOR RETREAT ON CHINA HOLIDAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The start of a national weeklong in China as of Tuesday is expected to put a lid in the latest rally of the dry bulk freight market, as has always been the case in similar occasions. This trend has already been obvious, by tracking the latest couple of sessions of the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index. The BDI was down 43 points yesterday, to end at 2,003 points, still more than double than the level of this past summer. The Capesize market witnessed the widest losses, which again was to be expected, given that most of the Capesize business is coming out of China. The BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) was down by 114 points to 3,853. Marginal losses were again obvious in the Panamax market, while smaller ship classes fared better, with Supramaxes rising by 10 points and Handysizes by three points to 1,079 and 597 respectively.
Capt. Jitesh Jaipuriyar, Chief Operating officer with Emerald Maritime, Dubai, offered Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com) an insight, regarding this latest rally of the dry bulk market, which has been fuelled by factors both "upstream" and "downstream". In the upstream factors, Capt. Jaipuriyar, noted that "miners are not able to sell at higher costs as there are few “takers”. India and China, as one of the most prospective import economies, are unable to support high raw material prices due to currency devaluation and slow growth combined. However, a miner may not be able to feed supply at the same cost for long as it threatens the very survival. Thus, the importer is forced to pay for high raw material prices which eventually is directly correlated to BDI upswing and supports the rally", he stated.
Regarding downstream factors, Capt. said that "in the current scenario, any increase in prices of raw materials, shall force miners to pass on the rises to the end users, in order to maintain profit margins, especially if this trend continues for an extended period. For shipping to recover, then this period has to be extended. Does it mean that it would bring “Inflationary pressure” in emerging economies? Not necessary. This is because when pressure builds up on downstream, other “balancing factors” shall come into play" he says.
According to Capt. Jaipuriyar, at this stage "the following question arises, if the high raw materials cost shall be able to create a “derived demand” or not. What we see as of now may not be real derived demand but more of a “Pseudo Demand”. Pseudo demand emerges from the constraint of choices a company has when having contracted out spot rates. This will show increased demand through paying more for shipping of the materials. However, the fact remains that companies have to commit to long term contracts (LTCs) and soaring period rates would not allow them to contract ships at lesser Time-Charter equivalents. But LTCs can play ‘Wait and watch’ game. This again contributes to pool of “pseudo demand” to be capitalized later and would support the rally", he says.
BULLWHIP EFFECT & “DECOUPLING”
"Last month, A Capesize stem from Australia to China, cost USD 14 per MT whereas same when slit in two panamaxes, costs only USD 13 per MT. This is against the economy of scale. So, how does it happen? When the demand goes up, a producer goes for bigger volumes and Capes rate go high. Due to limited Capes, the demand for smaller sizes down the chain increases which in effect creates a ‘Bullwhip effect’ to drive the demand for ships and rallies BDI overall.
So, at some point of time, the economic principles “decouple” with existing demand and supply scenario and lead to speculations. This in turn brings in volatility in the market. But the end demand drives it in sustainable way in spite of creation of multiple peaks and troughs on the way.
ROAD AHEAD
There have been many attempts to forecast BDIs in past and will continued to be explored. However, interestingly, it appears that the accuracy of forecasts lies not in “correlation” but possible “negative correlations”. It is for the fact that a positive correlation is not mere a result of one factor but a combination of many. Under such circumstances, it may not be possible to substantiate a proper or perfect “weightage” to one factor or another. But, past shows that gold, CRB (Commodity research bureau index) and crude prices often indicate how the negative correlation is building up and may help forecast BDI for short runs, possibly.
Overall, market remains upbeat for positive growth as stockpiles of grains and coal and other major commodities remain high to be shipped across the geographies", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 07 October 13
SGX - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Monday, 07 October 13
Q3'14 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 6.53% HIGHER THAN Q4'13
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery gained 0.53 % on day and fell 2.33 percept month on month ...
Sunday, 06 October 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET STAYS STEADY IN SPITE CHINESE HOLIDAYS - SOLYM CARRIERS SINGAPORE
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to remain firm in spite of Chinese holidays.
The BDI closed at 2,084 points on Friday 4 October or up ...
Saturday, 05 October 13
CAPESIZE EARNINGS SKYROCKET AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CHINA DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
An increased iron ore demand has triggered this latest dry bulk rally, which could get yet another boost during next week, when China is expected to ...
Friday, 04 October 13
NICKEL ORE SHIPMENTS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM LOSSES
One of the most pressing problems for the bulk shipping industry is the safe carriage of nickel ore. The increasing demand for this commodity is fue ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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