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Tuesday, 01 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET POISED FOR RETREAT ON CHINA HOLIDAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The start of a national weeklong in China as of Tuesday is expected to put a lid in the latest rally of the dry bulk freight market, as has always been the case in similar occasions. This trend has already been obvious, by tracking the latest couple of sessions of the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index. The BDI was down 43 points yesterday, to end at 2,003 points, still more than double than the level of this past summer. The Capesize market witnessed the widest losses, which again was to be expected, given that most of the Capesize business is coming out of China. The BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) was down by 114 points to 3,853. Marginal losses were again obvious in the Panamax market, while smaller ship classes fared better, with Supramaxes rising by 10 points and Handysizes by three points to 1,079 and 597 respectively.
Capt. Jitesh Jaipuriyar, Chief Operating officer with Emerald Maritime, Dubai, offered Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com) an insight, regarding this latest rally of the dry bulk market, which has been fuelled by factors both "upstream" and "downstream". In the upstream factors, Capt. Jaipuriyar, noted that "miners are not able to sell at higher costs as there are few “takers”. India and China, as one of the most prospective import economies, are unable to support high raw material prices due to currency devaluation and slow growth combined. However, a miner may not be able to feed supply at the same cost for long as it threatens the very survival. Thus, the importer is forced to pay for high raw material prices which eventually is directly correlated to BDI upswing and supports the rally", he stated.
Regarding downstream factors, Capt. said that "in the current scenario, any increase in prices of raw materials, shall force miners to pass on the rises to the end users, in order to maintain profit margins, especially if this trend continues for an extended period. For shipping to recover, then this period has to be extended. Does it mean that it would bring “Inflationary pressure” in emerging economies? Not necessary. This is because when pressure builds up on downstream, other “balancing factors” shall come into play" he says.
According to Capt. Jaipuriyar, at this stage "the following question arises, if the high raw materials cost shall be able to create a “derived demand” or not. What we see as of now may not be real derived demand but more of a “Pseudo Demand”. Pseudo demand emerges from the constraint of choices a company has when having contracted out spot rates. This will show increased demand through paying more for shipping of the materials. However, the fact remains that companies have to commit to long term contracts (LTCs) and soaring period rates would not allow them to contract ships at lesser Time-Charter equivalents. But LTCs can play ‘Wait and watch’ game. This again contributes to pool of “pseudo demand” to be capitalized later and would support the rally", he says.
BULLWHIP EFFECT & “DECOUPLING”
"Last month, A Capesize stem from Australia to China, cost USD 14 per MT whereas same when slit in two panamaxes, costs only USD 13 per MT. This is against the economy of scale. So, how does it happen? When the demand goes up, a producer goes for bigger volumes and Capes rate go high. Due to limited Capes, the demand for smaller sizes down the chain increases which in effect creates a ‘Bullwhip effect’ to drive the demand for ships and rallies BDI overall.
So, at some point of time, the economic principles “decouple” with existing demand and supply scenario and lead to speculations. This in turn brings in volatility in the market. But the end demand drives it in sustainable way in spite of creation of multiple peaks and troughs on the way.
ROAD AHEAD
There have been many attempts to forecast BDIs in past and will continued to be explored. However, interestingly, it appears that the accuracy of forecasts lies not in “correlation” but possible “negative correlations”. It is for the fact that a positive correlation is not mere a result of one factor but a combination of many. Under such circumstances, it may not be possible to substantiate a proper or perfect “weightage” to one factor or another. But, past shows that gold, CRB (Commodity research bureau index) and crude prices often indicate how the negative correlation is building up and may help forecast BDI for short runs, possibly.
Overall, market remains upbeat for positive growth as stockpiles of grains and coal and other major commodities remain high to be shipped across the geographies", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 01 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET IN FIRST POSITIVE SIGN IN DAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Owners of dry bulk carriers are well aware of the rollercoaster ride that has been the market for their vessels over the past few years. This trend ...
Thursday, 31 October 13
HANDY: ACTIVE; PANAMAX: QUIET; CAPESIZE: NO LIGHT
Handy
The handy market had an active week however not directly translated into the rates we´ve seen in the Pacific. We see more coal and baux ...
Wednesday, 30 October 13
INDONESIAN STATE OWNED COAL MINER HAS EXPORTED 7.02 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 9 MONTHS
COALspot.com : PT. Bukit Asam, Indonesian state owned coal miner has sold 13.24 million tons of coal for the period January - September 2013. Accord ...
Wednesday, 30 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST FURTHER GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable-)
The Dry Bulk market has lost further ground this past week, as de-creased activity in both basins for both C ...
Wednesday, 30 October 13
CAPESIZE: DOWNWARD; SUPRAS AND HANDIES: STABLE - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has resumed its downward movement, noting another dip for a third week in a row. The larger size segments were responsible for p ...
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Showing 4036 to 4040 news of total 6871 |
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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