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Tuesday, 01 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET POISED FOR RETREAT ON CHINA HOLIDAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The start of a national weeklong in China as of Tuesday is expected to put a lid in the latest rally of the dry bulk freight market, as has always been the case in similar occasions. This trend has already been obvious, by tracking the latest couple of sessions of the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index. The BDI was down 43 points yesterday, to end at 2,003 points, still more than double than the level of this past summer. The Capesize market witnessed the widest losses, which again was to be expected, given that most of the Capesize business is coming out of China. The BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) was down by 114 points to 3,853. Marginal losses were again obvious in the Panamax market, while smaller ship classes fared better, with Supramaxes rising by 10 points and Handysizes by three points to 1,079 and 597 respectively.
Capt. Jitesh Jaipuriyar, Chief Operating officer with Emerald Maritime, Dubai, offered Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com) an insight, regarding this latest rally of the dry bulk market, which has been fuelled by factors both "upstream" and "downstream". In the upstream factors, Capt. Jaipuriyar, noted that "miners are not able to sell at higher costs as there are few “takers”. India and China, as one of the most prospective import economies, are unable to support high raw material prices due to currency devaluation and slow growth combined. However, a miner may not be able to feed supply at the same cost for long as it threatens the very survival. Thus, the importer is forced to pay for high raw material prices which eventually is directly correlated to BDI upswing and supports the rally", he stated.
Regarding downstream factors, Capt. said that "in the current scenario, any increase in prices of raw materials, shall force miners to pass on the rises to the end users, in order to maintain profit margins, especially if this trend continues for an extended period. For shipping to recover, then this period has to be extended. Does it mean that it would bring “Inflationary pressure” in emerging economies? Not necessary. This is because when pressure builds up on downstream, other “balancing factors” shall come into play" he says.
According to Capt. Jaipuriyar, at this stage "the following question arises, if the high raw materials cost shall be able to create a “derived demand” or not. What we see as of now may not be real derived demand but more of a “Pseudo Demand”. Pseudo demand emerges from the constraint of choices a company has when having contracted out spot rates. This will show increased demand through paying more for shipping of the materials. However, the fact remains that companies have to commit to long term contracts (LTCs) and soaring period rates would not allow them to contract ships at lesser Time-Charter equivalents. But LTCs can play ‘Wait and watch’ game. This again contributes to pool of “pseudo demand” to be capitalized later and would support the rally", he says.
BULLWHIP EFFECT & “DECOUPLING”
"Last month, A Capesize stem from Australia to China, cost USD 14 per MT whereas same when slit in two panamaxes, costs only USD 13 per MT. This is against the economy of scale. So, how does it happen? When the demand goes up, a producer goes for bigger volumes and Capes rate go high. Due to limited Capes, the demand for smaller sizes down the chain increases which in effect creates a ‘Bullwhip effect’ to drive the demand for ships and rallies BDI overall.
So, at some point of time, the economic principles “decouple” with existing demand and supply scenario and lead to speculations. This in turn brings in volatility in the market. But the end demand drives it in sustainable way in spite of creation of multiple peaks and troughs on the way.
ROAD AHEAD
There have been many attempts to forecast BDIs in past and will continued to be explored. However, interestingly, it appears that the accuracy of forecasts lies not in “correlation” but possible “negative correlations”. It is for the fact that a positive correlation is not mere a result of one factor but a combination of many. Under such circumstances, it may not be possible to substantiate a proper or perfect “weightage” to one factor or another. But, past shows that gold, CRB (Commodity research bureau index) and crude prices often indicate how the negative correlation is building up and may help forecast BDI for short runs, possibly.
Overall, market remains upbeat for positive growth as stockpiles of grains and coal and other major commodities remain high to be shipped across the geographies", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 13 November 13
Q3' 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1' 14 PRICES
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery gained 0.55 percept W-W on Friday 8 November 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
THE SOFTENING HAS AFFECTED THE BIGGER SIZE SEGMENTS; SMALLER ONES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY STABLE - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of back to back weekly declines, the dry bulk market has finally reversed its negative course. We believe that there should ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS REVERSED ITS NEGATIVE COURSE - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable+ )
The Dry Bulk market has reversed its negative course this past week with rates for Capes making up fo ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS PLUNGE 12.40% IN W/E 10 NOVEMBER FROM THE PRIOR WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 11, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.42 ...
Monday, 11 November 13
TAMIL NADU STATE OWNED POWER GENERATOR TO IMPORT 3.7 MMT OF 6000 GAD COAL
COALspot.com - TANGEDCO, Tamil Nadu Generation & Distribution Corporation Ltd, Tamil Nadu state owned power generator & distributor intends ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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