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Friday, 20 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW HEIGHTS THIS WEEK STANDING AT THREE-YEAR HIGH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The biggest rally of the dry bulk market in more than three years have brought back joy among ship owners, especially those active in the Capesize market, while also proving right those analysts who had foreseen this recovery. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the industry's main benchmark maintained its upward trajectory, rising by an additional 38 points and reaching 1,860 points, almost double than its levels at the end of August. The main driving force behind yesterday's rise was, once again, the Capesize segment which was up by 86 points to reach 3,924 points, well over the break-even points even for those owners who invested at the peak of the market. Besides the Capesize market, all other segments of the dry bulk foray were on an upward trend as well, with the Panamaxes proving to be the strongest among them, up by 30 points.

In a recent note, shipbroker Intermodal noted that "it will take a longer period to understand how strong the legs to this latest rally are but the waves of optimism that have washed the market are undoubtedly high and more than welcome". In a separate note, shipbroker Fearnleys commented on the Capesize market that "the crusade continues with some speculating that market fundamentals may again look more rosy. Average daily earnings have gained almost USD 6k w-o-w, coming in at a firm USD 35500. The main driver is now increasing Atlantic mineral volumes combined with tight supply, and USD 40000 done for T/A round. Looking ahead, most owners are rating well described ships in the region of USD 35000, reflecting the aggressive gains seen on near dated paper FFA contracts for Oct and Q4 now stand at USD 36250 and 32000, respectively. Period deals are being concluded at levels not seen since 2010, with USD 27500 for 5-7 months done on a good 180000-tonner and lately USD 23250 done basis about 12 months. At present it appears that Chinese seasonal re-stocking activities will continue to absorb the growing spot iron ore supply, at least in the short term. This, combined with a relatively stable iron ore price, are good short term indicators for the Cape market", Fearnleys said.

Similarly, in the Panamax market, it stated that "after the recent rally, in particular in the Eastern Hemisphere, the market seems to have taken a breather - before moving further up. NOPAC rounds being fixed from 14k and close to 15k mid-week, but with healthy volumes and a steady flow of Cape splits there is room for elevated levels short term. Good signs for USG grain activity, where ton rates have moved up from 45 to above 50 in a week could be the basis for a substantial rise in the Atlantic market. With a lagging index and some voyage rates well under index, T/A rounds should be in the 12k range and fronthaul around 18k, even well above 20k on some particular runs. It seems the number of ballasters into the Western Hemisphere is being outnumbered by fresh requirements. Finally, we see decent volumes and levels for period where Owners secure about 12k for short and 11+ on 1 year spec and position depending. At least for now, the market is firm!", it said.

Finally, in the Handy market, Fearnleys said that "the rates in Feast are still firm this week even the activity calmed down a bit as chrtrs are not in a rush to cover even their end Sept cargos seems they are speculating on lower rates. Indo/China coal rounds spot vessel open Phils fixed at USD 13k. For vessels open ECI rates jumping up to around USD 10k dop for trips Indo/India with coal. Short period a 57k dwt vessel open N.China was fixed at low 11k for 3/5 mos redel WW. MEG/WCI is still quiet. S.Africa is over supply, rates remain USD 8+200k for trip to Feast", Fearnleys concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide



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