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Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the freight rate market. This has been the resurgence of newbuilding ordering activity as more and more ship owners sought after good deals to expand their fleets. It has been a direct reversal versus 2012 and comes as a result of owners taking advantage rock bottom prices and extras now been offered by shipyards. This development intitally freightened many market observers who were worried that this new surge of orders would once again "choke" the market and keep up the tonnage oversupply.
However, according to a recent report from shipbroker Intemodal, "taking a close look at the numbers, a slightly different picture starts to emerge. Despite the considerable number of new orders we are still finding ourselves with an ever dropping orderbook both in terms of number of vessels and as a percentage to the active fleet (with only exception being that of Supramaxes which saw a marginal rise in their orderbook during the first 8 months). At the same time and despite the overwhelming deliveries entering active service this year, the charter market has held up considerably well and with the summer lull now looking to be well behind us and a brighter autumn up ahead, it seems that many market players are breathing a sigh of relief that the worst is over and it’s all better days from here on out".
According to George Lazaridis, Research Analyst at Intermodal, "the reality is this optimism needs to be taken with a pinch of restraint. The orderbook may have diminished from its haydays of 2010 but the shipbuilding capacity is still there in its majority, meaning that collectively ship-owners could lead it back up to dangerous levels lured by false pretenses of extraordinarily high earnings.
Having given our word of caution it’s time to get to brass tacks. Are there real opportunities out there for newbuildings or have most of the recent orders been over speculative? The truth is that there are more than a few arguments for placing a newbuilding as things stand now. For one there is the classic argument of better perfor-mance from the new ship designs that are on offer. This is neither here nor there when it comes to arguing for placing a new order. A new order should focus more on covering future demand rather than better competing in an over supplied market", Lazaridis noted.
He added that "tn that respect is where we find our next argument and better placed in our opinion. Demand has been steadily growing over the past 5 years despite the turbulent conditions in the global economy. The developing world has been well primed for further economic growth and as such has not only increased the seaborne trade of dry bulk raw resources, but has also had a positive influence in intra-trade of finished goods between them. Though the latter has been less of a big drive for the market, the former has not only kept things going in the larger sizes but has also open many future possibilities for new size segments and that’s where the key lays in the opinion of many market players. The birth of interest for Kamsarmaxes, Ultramaxes and larger Handies has been mainly due to the fact that these designs have been shaped primarily to take advantage of the potential held by these high growth economies. It’s no surprise that the prime size segment in the dry bulk in terms of new orders this year has been for Ultramaxes, followed by Kamsarmaxes.
Finally, as always we find our old friend cost which has been the main driver for most who tend to see it as an opportunity for arbitrage between prices of today and prices in 24 months or so when the vessel will be ready for delivery. This may well hold but to what extent and is it going to be better than a secondhand vessel that may also have a small positive cash flow from trading to offer besides the positive gain from any increase in prices. Let’s not forget that prices are influenced by earnings though more in the case of the secondhand vessel, while we don’t expect any major trading boom to develop that could drive resale prices to the moon com-pared to a five year old vessel", Lazaridis noted.
Concluding his analysis he noted that "after that we seem to be back to our old friend “future demand” and by that respect there seem to be sufficient reason for the same level of new ordering to continue, no more, no less. So despite the recent hike that has been noted in newbuilding prices there is still more than sufficient sense in placing a new order today provided you have the finance and made due diligence with regards to the design and shipbuilder, cause at the end of the day it doesn’t matter when you place your order, a badly built ship will always be a badly built ship".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Wednesday, 11 September 13
ASIA - PACIFIC THERMAL COAL MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN NEXT 12 MONTHS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says the Asia-Pacific thermal coal market will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months because strong production has b ...
Tuesday, 10 September 13
COAL EXPORTS AT AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SLIP 30.31% ON WEEK TO 2.36 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port down 30.31 per cent week on week to 2.36 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 10 September 13
WORLDWIDE COAL CONSUMPTION RISES SHARPLY - RA DR. ERICH SCHMITZ
By: RA Dr. Erich Schmitz, Verein der Kohlenimporteure (Germany Coal Importers Association)
World hard coal market in the first half of 2013: worl ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
Q3 2014 THERMAL COAL SWAPS : STEADY DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery up 1.88 percent month on month. The swap was moved ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
BALTIC INDEX UP ON HIGHER CAPESIZE, PANAMAX RATES
COALspot.com : The freight market continued saw one of the biggest rally last week with Cape Size taking the lead followed by Panamax.
The BDI wa ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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