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Friday, 06 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW YEAR-HIGHS ON THE BACK OF INCREASED CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market has been on the rise once again, but this time around any new increase of freight rates translates into new year-highs, thus bringing more cheers among dry bulk ship owners, who are actively looking ahead, wondering whether this latest rally is a sign of things to come, as 2014 is believed to be the first year of a substantial recovery in freight rates. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reacedh 1,279 points, up by 64 points on the day. As expected, this latest rise was backed by strong Capesize demand as evidenced by the Baltic Capesize Index's increase of a whopping 215 points, to 2,660. Panamaxes were also higher by 28 points, to 961 (BPI), while, a more modest rise of nine points to a total of 952 was also evident in the Supramax market.

According to Fearnleys latest weekly report, on the Capesize market, "Spot and period reaching levels not seen for quite some time, as iron ore volumes from both West Australia, South Africa and Brazil show very positive developments. Despite very limited transatlantic activity and consequent poor earnings for that particular niche, overall average daily spot earnings are up 14% w-o-w to come in at usd 18000 - and continuing up. Support is given from market faith in Q4/2103, with corresponding FFA´s presently at an impressive usd 25k. Period levels AND FFA values for CAL14 follow suit, with resultant fixtures including 2012-built 179000-tonner delivering S.Korea mid sept done for 6-9 months at usd 19800, 180000 dwt/built 2011 delivering China prompt for 12-16 months at usd 18300 and 180000 dwt/built 2013 fixing ex Imabari Yard mid sept for 30-36 months at usd 20k with options for 4th and 5th year at usd 24k and usd 26k respectively", Fearnleys said.

In a note this week, Grindrod, a major sea transportation conglomerate, said that "commodity demand remains strong and world seaborne trade continues to grow.

Demand is recovering in the products market which, when allied to minimal deliveries of newbuilding vessels, is resulting in sharply improved tanker rates. The outlook for the dry cargo market remains weak due to the number, albeit reduced from 2012 levels, of new ships delivering into an already oversupplied market. On the positive side, scrapping of older drybulk tonnage continues at high levels and the newbuilding order book going forward is limited. This is leading to a rebalancing of the supply/demand equation, in particular on the smaller size ships. The owned and long-term chartered fleet has a reasonable level of cover for the remainder of 2013, combined with solid ship operating forecast earnings. Forward contracts on 36% (weighted by revenue) of vessels in the second half of 2013 will lock in US$1,6 million of operating profit, with 22% (weighted by revenue) of vessels already under contract for 2014, resulting in contracted operating profits of US$8,5 million", Grindrod said.

Meanwhile, in the Panamax market, Fearnleys said that "we see more activity in the both hemispheres this week. More coal and iron ore cargoes are entering the market and owners willing Fhauls are in for a good 15k for same bss Cont delivery. TA´s are being paid 8 and even up to 10k. With the Chinese restocking their iore piles and Cape rates at descent levels, we see more stems being quoted as panamax stems. In the Pacific it is a steady flow of coal cargoes entering the market and rounds are being paid around Usd 8k. The imposed tax on low grade coal fm the Chinese has not yet transferred into the shipping market. The latter we believe will add more tonne miles into the trade and we will see less of the Indonesian rounds that we see tday. Period market has regained acitivity with supporting FFA values making it more atractive for takers. LME´s are now fetching close to Usd 9,500 for one year and high 9´s for 2 years", the shipbroker said.

Finally, in the Handy market, Fearnleys noted that "nickel ore was pushing the Feast market, several ships were fixed from low teens to $14k. Indo/India was still supported by bauxite, while there were not many coal orders. Vessels ballast from N.China asked $9k+260 gbb bss aps E.Kalimantan for trips to India. WCI-PG was rather quiet, trips via S.Africa to Feast paying 8+200k levels. For Nopac rounds vessels were trading at 8k +. It seems there was an increasing interest in spot period, 55k dwt spot N.China fixed 3/5 months redelivery WW at mid 9k, others open in SE.Asia got 11/13 months biz at high 9k", it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide



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