We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
 By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time around and what we got – but did not anticipate. As the Summer heat arrived, Capesize owners found themselves basking in the sun. Average earnings for Capesize vessels went from USD 6,000 per day to USD 12,000 per day in less than two weeks. The momentum lifted rates as high as USD 15,218 per day on 1 July. This was a sizeable and very welcome surprise as the combination, once again, of vessels being at the “right place at the right time” proved to be profitable. As Brazilian iron ore exports in particular jumped after some weaker months, congestion at load ports rose and charterers were left searching for prompt and available tonnage. At the same time, Australian iron ore ports were hit by heavy rainfall which also affected shipping. It is a little miracle that tight situations can still appear and push up freight rates, in spite of tonnage being abundant in the market. Since the 1 July peak, freight rates have slid slowly, as the imbalanced market is smoothed by ballasting tonnage returning to the Atlantic from the Far East. Some of the weakness in most of H1 is due to the fact that Brazil has been losing some of its share of the iron ore market to Australia.
Besides that, the market is affected by falling commodity prices (iron ore, steel and coal). This could, in theory, positively affect shipping demand if consumers and traders take advantage of it and stock up, but it may as well mirror a fundamental slowdown in demand.
No slowdown is seen in steel production fortunately, at Chinese steel production went up by 9.2% in the first half as compared to same period last year. Iron ore imports “only” went up by 4.8% in the same period of time. Both indicators are positive for shipping demand. Traditionally, Chinese iron ore demand is stronger in the second half of the year; this could build a case for stronger rates in the larger segments in Q3 and Q4 if this seasonality is repeated.
The larger production of steel and moderate consumption of same has put steel prices under pressure. Falling steel prices are normally quite worrying for the dry bulk sector. In the wake of several months with record high steel production, prices weakened continuously, getting quite close to the threateningly low levels of August/September 2012. But has the scare just evaporated with the latest pick up in prices toward the end of July? That is still too early to call despite the optimism in most recent “official” China manufacturing PMI report.
Supply:
During the past two months, 10 million DWT of new tonnage has joined the dry bulk fleet, which now totals at 704 million DWT. This is up by 3.6% since 1 January.
Looking at future delivery prospect, 70% of all new orders placed during the past two months have been for 2015 delivery. In addition to some postponements, this has pushed the projected orders for 2015 delivery up from 20 million to 25 million DWT.
For 2013, BIMCO projects new tonnage of 70 million to hit the water, a four-year low, and a gradual return to a lower supply pressure on the market.
While new orders have been fairly equally distributed for the past two months as a whole, June saw a flurry of Supramax orders whereas July was pretty biased towards Capesize vessels. As a lot of Panamax ships are currently being delivered into an oversupplied market, owners showed only little appetite for placing new orders for Panamax ships.
In total, the dry bulk order book has grown by 3.2 million DWT during the recent two months. It now stands at 126 million DWT. It’s the first time in more than two and a half years that the order book has increased, on its way down from 300 million DWT highs at the end of 2010.
As 29 million DWT of new vessels have been ordered so far in 2013, the total has already surpassed that of the full year 2012. This development seems to have stopped the slide of new building prices, which are now seen to be on a slow rise, with the exception of Panamax new building prices which are still flat, as demand does not support higher prices in this segment yet.
Outlook:
As the global and Chinese GDP are now seen lower than earlier in the year, we also have to settle for something that might be the sixth consecutive year of supply outpacing demand. But the race is still on, as supply is set for 5.7% and demand for 5-6%.
China’s import of agricultural products could provide some upside, as wheat and soybeans could end up falling short of demand due to adverse weather conditions. If imports of wheat are supplied predominantly by US producers, which is likely, this may bring some growth in demand due to long sailing distances. The same effect can be expected by increased Brazilian exports of soybeans in the second half of the year following a congestion-affected export level in the January-May period.
In recent months, Asian thermal coal prices have nose-dived, as plenty of coal is offered in the market. Utilities are no longer worried about running stocks low, as supply is excessive. During the second quarter, Russian, Columbian and American coal was also offered into the market, putting further pressure on traditional Indonesian and Australian coal markets. FOB thermal coal prices for “Newcastle 5500” or “Richards Bay 5500” were just above USD 66 per Mt coming down from USD 75 per Mt and USD 72 per Mt respectively. As we know, demand is healthy, the lower prices could prove a catalyst for higher freight rates as we move further into Q3. Further weakening of the Indian Rupee or the Japanese Yen could dampen the positive effect somewhat.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 2 months:
BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected around USD 8,000-13,000 per day.
Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 6,000-9,000 per day interval.
For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval,
whereas Handysize rates are forecast to show limited volatility in the interval of USD 6,500-9,000 per day.
Source: BIMCO Peter Sand Chief Shipping Analyst / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 08 September 13
BALTIC INDEX UP ON HIGHER CAPESIZE, PANAMAX RATES
COALspot.com : The freight market continued saw one of the biggest rally last week with Cape Size taking the lead followed by Panamax.
The BDI wa ...
Friday, 06 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW YEAR-HIGHS ON THE BACK OF INCREASED CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been on the rise once again, but this time around any new increase of freight rates translates into new year-highs, thus bri ...
Friday, 06 September 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 90.80 MMST OF COAL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.90 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 05 September 13
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS UP BY 6.72 PERCENT IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's largest multi grade coal exporter shipped 35.268* million tons of coal in July 2013. Indonesian coal exp ...
Thursday, 05 September 13
HANDY: NICKEL ORE WAS PUSHING THE FAR EAST MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Nickel Ore was pushing the Feast market, several ships were fixed from low teens to $14k. Indo/India was still supported by bauxite, while th ...
|
|
|
Showing 4136 to 4140 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
