We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
 By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time around and what we got – but did not anticipate. As the Summer heat arrived, Capesize owners found themselves basking in the sun. Average earnings for Capesize vessels went from USD 6,000 per day to USD 12,000 per day in less than two weeks. The momentum lifted rates as high as USD 15,218 per day on 1 July. This was a sizeable and very welcome surprise as the combination, once again, of vessels being at the “right place at the right time” proved to be profitable. As Brazilian iron ore exports in particular jumped after some weaker months, congestion at load ports rose and charterers were left searching for prompt and available tonnage. At the same time, Australian iron ore ports were hit by heavy rainfall which also affected shipping. It is a little miracle that tight situations can still appear and push up freight rates, in spite of tonnage being abundant in the market. Since the 1 July peak, freight rates have slid slowly, as the imbalanced market is smoothed by ballasting tonnage returning to the Atlantic from the Far East. Some of the weakness in most of H1 is due to the fact that Brazil has been losing some of its share of the iron ore market to Australia.
Besides that, the market is affected by falling commodity prices (iron ore, steel and coal). This could, in theory, positively affect shipping demand if consumers and traders take advantage of it and stock up, but it may as well mirror a fundamental slowdown in demand.
No slowdown is seen in steel production fortunately, at Chinese steel production went up by 9.2% in the first half as compared to same period last year. Iron ore imports “only” went up by 4.8% in the same period of time. Both indicators are positive for shipping demand. Traditionally, Chinese iron ore demand is stronger in the second half of the year; this could build a case for stronger rates in the larger segments in Q3 and Q4 if this seasonality is repeated.
The larger production of steel and moderate consumption of same has put steel prices under pressure. Falling steel prices are normally quite worrying for the dry bulk sector. In the wake of several months with record high steel production, prices weakened continuously, getting quite close to the threateningly low levels of August/September 2012. But has the scare just evaporated with the latest pick up in prices toward the end of July? That is still too early to call despite the optimism in most recent “official” China manufacturing PMI report.
Supply:
During the past two months, 10 million DWT of new tonnage has joined the dry bulk fleet, which now totals at 704 million DWT. This is up by 3.6% since 1 January.
Looking at future delivery prospect, 70% of all new orders placed during the past two months have been for 2015 delivery. In addition to some postponements, this has pushed the projected orders for 2015 delivery up from 20 million to 25 million DWT.
For 2013, BIMCO projects new tonnage of 70 million to hit the water, a four-year low, and a gradual return to a lower supply pressure on the market.
While new orders have been fairly equally distributed for the past two months as a whole, June saw a flurry of Supramax orders whereas July was pretty biased towards Capesize vessels. As a lot of Panamax ships are currently being delivered into an oversupplied market, owners showed only little appetite for placing new orders for Panamax ships.
In total, the dry bulk order book has grown by 3.2 million DWT during the recent two months. It now stands at 126 million DWT. It’s the first time in more than two and a half years that the order book has increased, on its way down from 300 million DWT highs at the end of 2010.
As 29 million DWT of new vessels have been ordered so far in 2013, the total has already surpassed that of the full year 2012. This development seems to have stopped the slide of new building prices, which are now seen to be on a slow rise, with the exception of Panamax new building prices which are still flat, as demand does not support higher prices in this segment yet.
Outlook:
As the global and Chinese GDP are now seen lower than earlier in the year, we also have to settle for something that might be the sixth consecutive year of supply outpacing demand. But the race is still on, as supply is set for 5.7% and demand for 5-6%.
China’s import of agricultural products could provide some upside, as wheat and soybeans could end up falling short of demand due to adverse weather conditions. If imports of wheat are supplied predominantly by US producers, which is likely, this may bring some growth in demand due to long sailing distances. The same effect can be expected by increased Brazilian exports of soybeans in the second half of the year following a congestion-affected export level in the January-May period.
In recent months, Asian thermal coal prices have nose-dived, as plenty of coal is offered in the market. Utilities are no longer worried about running stocks low, as supply is excessive. During the second quarter, Russian, Columbian and American coal was also offered into the market, putting further pressure on traditional Indonesian and Australian coal markets. FOB thermal coal prices for “Newcastle 5500” or “Richards Bay 5500” were just above USD 66 per Mt coming down from USD 75 per Mt and USD 72 per Mt respectively. As we know, demand is healthy, the lower prices could prove a catalyst for higher freight rates as we move further into Q3. Further weakening of the Indian Rupee or the Japanese Yen could dampen the positive effect somewhat.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 2 months:
BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected around USD 8,000-13,000 per day.
Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 6,000-9,000 per day interval.
For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval,
whereas Handysize rates are forecast to show limited volatility in the interval of USD 6,500-9,000 per day.
Source: BIMCO Peter Sand Chief Shipping Analyst / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
|
|
|
Showing 91 to 95 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
