We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
 By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time around and what we got – but did not anticipate. As the Summer heat arrived, Capesize owners found themselves basking in the sun. Average earnings for Capesize vessels went from USD 6,000 per day to USD 12,000 per day in less than two weeks. The momentum lifted rates as high as USD 15,218 per day on 1 July. This was a sizeable and very welcome surprise as the combination, once again, of vessels being at the “right place at the right time” proved to be profitable. As Brazilian iron ore exports in particular jumped after some weaker months, congestion at load ports rose and charterers were left searching for prompt and available tonnage. At the same time, Australian iron ore ports were hit by heavy rainfall which also affected shipping. It is a little miracle that tight situations can still appear and push up freight rates, in spite of tonnage being abundant in the market. Since the 1 July peak, freight rates have slid slowly, as the imbalanced market is smoothed by ballasting tonnage returning to the Atlantic from the Far East. Some of the weakness in most of H1 is due to the fact that Brazil has been losing some of its share of the iron ore market to Australia.
Besides that, the market is affected by falling commodity prices (iron ore, steel and coal). This could, in theory, positively affect shipping demand if consumers and traders take advantage of it and stock up, but it may as well mirror a fundamental slowdown in demand.
No slowdown is seen in steel production fortunately, at Chinese steel production went up by 9.2% in the first half as compared to same period last year. Iron ore imports “only” went up by 4.8% in the same period of time. Both indicators are positive for shipping demand. Traditionally, Chinese iron ore demand is stronger in the second half of the year; this could build a case for stronger rates in the larger segments in Q3 and Q4 if this seasonality is repeated.
The larger production of steel and moderate consumption of same has put steel prices under pressure. Falling steel prices are normally quite worrying for the dry bulk sector. In the wake of several months with record high steel production, prices weakened continuously, getting quite close to the threateningly low levels of August/September 2012. But has the scare just evaporated with the latest pick up in prices toward the end of July? That is still too early to call despite the optimism in most recent “official” China manufacturing PMI report.
Supply:
During the past two months, 10 million DWT of new tonnage has joined the dry bulk fleet, which now totals at 704 million DWT. This is up by 3.6% since 1 January.
Looking at future delivery prospect, 70% of all new orders placed during the past two months have been for 2015 delivery. In addition to some postponements, this has pushed the projected orders for 2015 delivery up from 20 million to 25 million DWT.
For 2013, BIMCO projects new tonnage of 70 million to hit the water, a four-year low, and a gradual return to a lower supply pressure on the market.
While new orders have been fairly equally distributed for the past two months as a whole, June saw a flurry of Supramax orders whereas July was pretty biased towards Capesize vessels. As a lot of Panamax ships are currently being delivered into an oversupplied market, owners showed only little appetite for placing new orders for Panamax ships.
In total, the dry bulk order book has grown by 3.2 million DWT during the recent two months. It now stands at 126 million DWT. It’s the first time in more than two and a half years that the order book has increased, on its way down from 300 million DWT highs at the end of 2010.
As 29 million DWT of new vessels have been ordered so far in 2013, the total has already surpassed that of the full year 2012. This development seems to have stopped the slide of new building prices, which are now seen to be on a slow rise, with the exception of Panamax new building prices which are still flat, as demand does not support higher prices in this segment yet.
Outlook:
As the global and Chinese GDP are now seen lower than earlier in the year, we also have to settle for something that might be the sixth consecutive year of supply outpacing demand. But the race is still on, as supply is set for 5.7% and demand for 5-6%.
China’s import of agricultural products could provide some upside, as wheat and soybeans could end up falling short of demand due to adverse weather conditions. If imports of wheat are supplied predominantly by US producers, which is likely, this may bring some growth in demand due to long sailing distances. The same effect can be expected by increased Brazilian exports of soybeans in the second half of the year following a congestion-affected export level in the January-May period.
In recent months, Asian thermal coal prices have nose-dived, as plenty of coal is offered in the market. Utilities are no longer worried about running stocks low, as supply is excessive. During the second quarter, Russian, Columbian and American coal was also offered into the market, putting further pressure on traditional Indonesian and Australian coal markets. FOB thermal coal prices for “Newcastle 5500” or “Richards Bay 5500” were just above USD 66 per Mt coming down from USD 75 per Mt and USD 72 per Mt respectively. As we know, demand is healthy, the lower prices could prove a catalyst for higher freight rates as we move further into Q3. Further weakening of the Indian Rupee or the Japanese Yen could dampen the positive effect somewhat.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 2 months:
BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected around USD 8,000-13,000 per day.
Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 6,000-9,000 per day interval.
For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval,
whereas Handysize rates are forecast to show limited volatility in the interval of USD 6,500-9,000 per day.
Source: BIMCO Peter Sand Chief Shipping Analyst / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
|
|
|
Showing 56 to 60 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
