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Thursday, 15 August 13
CAPESIZE : TRENDS SOMETIMES SHIFT WITH NO PRIOR WARNING - FEARNRESEARCH


Handy
The influence of the summer holidays across Europe was felt in the Atlantic basin this week. Very little activity and a growing list of available tonnage causing rates to slip. A positive note is the Black Sea market where grain season has kicked in and we´ve seen rates add around USD 2-300 daily throughout the week. The activity in to USG with steels has also seen some increased sentiment, but this is yet to be seen rate wise. The Pacific continues to slide south with ships outnumbering the cargoes and little improvement is expected short term.

Panamax
A fair amount of fresh Atlantic requirements did not prevent a falling trend in the basin, being outnumbered by open positions. Owners have fixed 2 laden legs at around mid 9.000, but voyage rates or single T/C rounds are rated considerably less apart from short runs on the Continent. Fronthaul also in a decline with less grain volumes from ECSA and despite major miners being active with mineral requirements to the Far East. Grains activity from USG is on the rise with levels equal to 44-45 pmt, 14.500 + 450K bss APS, or 7.500 from the Pacific for full rounds. The Eastern hemisphere has found a floor and shown signs of both improved levels and activity with NOPAC buiz in the 6.000 range and SE Asia rounds in the low 7´s to 8.000 + for trips to India. The forward curve seems to be affected by the recent strong sentiment in the Cape sector, leading to some period activity short up to one year at levels from 8.500 to low 9´s.

Capesize
Trends sometimes shift with no prior warning, and this week has seen sentiment much improved across the board. The combination of healthy volume out of West Australia and a typhoon causing port delays in South China has seen the C5 index push up nearly $1 w-o-w to its current level of USD 9.30 pmt. The strong demand has similarly seen near dated paper contracts push upward, with Q4 contracts valued at $18,900 at the time of writing, up a healthy $2500 w-o-w. Similarly in the Atlantic, despite the strike at Drummond, tonnage appears tighter and the TA RV index pushed up $3.5k on Wednesday alone. On the period side, reports of 16.5k and upward for 5-8 months are clearly indicative of the improved outlook for the rest of 2013. Chinese steel production figures have surprised many analysts and the price of iron ore 62% CFR Tianjin is now marked above $140 per tonne, considerably higher, then many predicted it would be six months ago.
Source: FEARNLEYS AS

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