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Friday, 02 August 13
DRY BULK MARKET STABILIZES ON RENEWED MARKET ACTIVITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The dry bulk market has kept its positive footing this week, although it's still a far cry to deem the market situation as a growing one, especially given the fact that traditionally, summer is a slow period for dry bulk. According to the latest session of the Baltic Dry Index, the BDI, an industry benchmark was up by four points to 1,066. The biggest improvement was for the Capesize segment, which seems poised for another rebounding week. The Baltic Capesize Index rose by 54 points to 1,935. By contrast, Panamaxes and Supramaxes were lower yesterday.

According to the latest weekly report from Fearnleys, in the Capesize segment, "the flow of cargoes remains relatively stable, and the Pacific is looking promising. The west Australian shippers have been active, resulting in freight rates improving from 7.75 to lower 8´s early this week. In the Atlantic, rates are under pressure due to the strike in Columbia. There is still a lack of fronthaul fixtures being concluded, but more cargoes are anticipated and rates are expected to improve also for the Tubarao/Qingdao route", the shipbroker said.

In the Panamax market, "in general the week has been a quiet one with limited activity in both hemispheres. The biggest decline we saw in the Atlantic, with a lack of new orders causing the tonnage list to outnumber the cargoes. In the east there were more aps fixtures and charterers trying to push the rates down. TA´s pending around USD 10-11k depending on durations and delivery. Some fronthauls were reported at a healthy 18k level but these were probably concluded end of last week. Despite the low activity some longer period fixtures with options were rumoured and levels were below the 10k mark", Fearnleys said.

Finally, in the Handy segment, "the Pacific market is still facing low activity, so no wonder that the tonnage list is getting longer. It´s still Ramadan and only a few coal shipments circulated. For vessels spot Singapore to India owners could get around mid USD 8k and for trips to China around USD 9k. Backhaul orders to USG are paying around USD 3k levels. Low activity on the period side. For S.Afr mid-Aug cargoes is coming into the market but chrtr not move yet as they try to achieve low USD 8k+low USD 200k levels while owners remain at high USD 8k+USD 300k levels", the shipbroker concluded.

Meanwhile, in other positive news for the dry bulk market, Commodore Research & Consultancy highlighted earlier in the week, the fact that Chinese steel stockpile levels and steel prices have continued to normalize and are finally close to reaching last year’s levels. According to Commodore, "Chinese steel stockpiles have remained above 2012’s level since the second week of March. On March 8th of this year, 19.7 million tons of flat and construction steel products were stockpiled in China. This was 1.1 million tons (6%) more than was stockpiled on March 8, 2012. The gap between 2013 and 2012 stockpile levels then widened significantly during the next few months, which was a clear sign of Chinese steel production exceeding demand by a large amount. The widest gap this year saw steel stockpiles up year-on-year by 4 million tons (23%) on April 5th. At that point, Chinese steel stockpiles totaled a robust 21.9 million tons. In comparison, stockpiles totaled 17.9 million tons on April 5, 2012. During the next twelve weeks, Chinese steel stockpiles remained up year-on-year by at least 12%. It was not until the beginning of this month that steel stockpiles fell to levels that exceeded 2012 levels by less than 12%", Commodore noted.

It added that "at present, 15.7 million tons of steel is stockpiled in China which is just 200,000 tons (2%) more than was stockpiled a year ago. Steel stockpiles have returned to healthier level as steel production has fallen to a level more in line with actual demand. The first three weeks of this month have seen daily crude steel production average roughly 2.11 million tons. During the last week of June, however, daily crude steel production was averaging approximately 2.18 million tons. The decline in steel production has helped lead to a normalization in Chinese steel stockpiles. Chinese steel prices have also finally come closer to reaching last year’s level. The average price of 3.0mm hot rolled coil in China, for example, has risen to about 3,765 yuan/ton ($614). Steel prices have now increased in four consecutive weeks, and are now just 135 yuan (-3%) less than where they stood a year ago. Chinese steel prices have remained below 2012 levels for all of this year, and as recently as the last week of June were down year-on-year by 15%. Overall, it is very encouraging that steel prices and stockpiles are finally returning to last year’s levels", it concluded.
Source:
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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