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Tuesday, 30 July 13
HARD COAL ON THE WAY TO BECOMING THE WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY SOURCE - VDKI


Press Release : Hard coal continued to be the world’s fastest-growing fossil primary energy source in 2012. It covered about 28% of the world's demand for primary energy, totalling     19.1 billion TCE. The Asian-Indian region above all utilised electricity from coal-fired power plants to promote its growth. Production rose by 208 million tonnes or 3% to about 7.2 billion tonnes in 2012. The lion’s share is attributable to China, which accounts for over 50% of production and 21% of global energy consumption. Five Pacific countries (China, India, Australia, Indonesia and Vietnam) account for approximately 70% of global hard coal production.

In its latest medium-term energy forecast for 2012-2017, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that coal could replace oil as the most important source of energy in five years. The IEA furthermore estimates that the global increase in coal consumption will also continue to increase by an average of 2.6% p.a. over the next five years. India, not China, will be the country with the most significant increase in coal consumption, potentially making it the biggest coal importer. Hard coal will thus retain its dominant position. In OECD countries, the IEA forecasts a slight decrease in coal consumption by 0.8% p.a. until 2017, but an increase of 3.9% in non-OECD countries.

Primary energy consumption in the 27 EU countries fell from 2.46 billion TCE to  2.37 billion TCE (-3.7%) due to the stagnant economic situation. The proportion of coal increased from 16% to 19%, despite expansion of renewable energy sources, but at the expense of gas. In Europe, hard coal production fell by 1 million tonnes to 128 million tonnes, of which 78 million tonnes was attributable solely to Poland,   17 million tonnes to the UK and 12 million tonnes to Germany. 


Seaborne world trade in hard coal continues to increase. The world market for hard coal (seaborne trade and internal trade) in 2012 grew by 122 million tonnes or around 12% to 1,164 million tonnes. In 2012, seaborne trade in hard coal increased by 104 million tonnes to 1,082 million tonnes (+11%), and internal trade even increased by 28% or 18 million tonnes to 82 million tonnes. Total world trade in hard coal in 2012 reached 1,164 million tonnes, significantly passing the billion-tonne mark for the second time. Whilst the coking coal market only saw an increase of 17 million tonnes to 256 million tonnes due to the stagnant to shrinking steel market, the steam coal market grew by 12% or 87 million tonnes to a total of 826 million tonnes. The increase in internal trade is primarily attributable to exports from Mongolia to China and from Kazakhstan to Russia.  

Additional slight growth in the demand for overseas coal, above all in Asia, isexpected for 2013. As the world economic outlook, particularly in OECD countries, isotherwise rather restrained, a fall in prices for steam coal, coking coal and coke hasbeen observed since the beginning of the year. 

Coal imports into Germany in 2012 took advantage of German electricity exports to neighbouring countries - hard coal consumption rose by a total of 3.1%.

Power generation and the steel industry caused to different consumption of coal. Whilst the consumption of coking coal and coke fell by 10% from 17.1 million tonnes to 15.4 million tonnes, there was an increase in the use of steam coal by 6.1% to 40.1 million TCE and on the heating market by 0.1 million TCE to 1.5 million TCE.  

Imports to Germany only slightly down in 2012. Imports of hard coal totalling 47.9 million tonnes were only slightly lower than in 2011 (48.3 million tonnes), of which steam coal accounted for 35.3 million tonnes (+1.1 million tonnes), coking coal for 9.6 million tonnes (-0.4 million tonnes) and coke 3 million tonnes (-1.2 million tonnes).

As there has been no change in the economic weakness affecting the steel industry, imports will not increase in 2013. We estimate that the demand for steam coal will remain at the 2012 level as a result of the favourable clean dark spread compared to gas and the further decline in German hard coal mining.

Hard coal imports totalling around 46 million tonnes are therefore anticipated for 2013.

The Association of Coal Importers (VDKi)
The VDKi represents the interests of the German market for imported hard coal. The German and European members are from the sectors of the power industry, industry, trade and logistics. The Association currently has 76 members who consume about 83% of German demand for hard coal amounting to approximately 57 million tonnes in their facilities. In 2012, imported coal covered 73% of coal sales in Germany. The VDKi represents the overwhelming share of the hard coal market (German and imported hard coal) in Germany, with a financial volume running into billions.   Further information can be found at www.verein-kohlenimporteure.de .  



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