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Wednesday, 08 July 09
GERMAN COAL PRODUCTION DECREASED BY 31% TO ROUND 3.4 MILLION TON IN 1Q 2009 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, HAMBURG
 COALspot.com (Germany):
World Coal Market
According to analysis of VEREIN DER KOHLENIMPORTEURE E.V. , On a quantity basis the steam coal market is further stable, whereas the Asian market is supported by imports from China and India.
In view of the background of weaker industrial activity, the demand for steam coal in the Atlantic area is modest. The fob prices are slightly sinking connected with intensive swings upward and downward. The coking coal market has seen a sharp fall. The contract prices for the period 2009/2010 have declined by 60 % compared to the contract prices 2008 / 2009 and are partially crumbling.
Despite of lesser bulk commodity volume and further rising fleet capacity, the freight rates have considerably increased very recently. Considering the basis data, this upswing is not explainable. The tendency should rather be a lower freight level.
Hard Coal
Imports regarding the imports of hard coal, coking coal and briquettes for the months January to March 2009, the Federal Statistic Office of Germany determined a decrease of the whole imports by 14.6 % to 10,934,068 ton compared to the previous year.
"Energy Prices in 1Q 2009 the BAFA price in average was 91.24 Euro / TCE" German Coal Importers Association
Germany Domestic Coal – 1Q 2009
Due to the closures of the mines Saar, Walsum & Lippe , the German production decreased by 31 % to round 3.4 million t in 1Q 2009 in comparison with the previous year. Extrapolated there might be reached a whole production of 13-14 million ton in 2009.
In 1Q 2009 the coke production decreased by round 20 %. Due to the steel crisis, the coking plant Prosper operates curbed at 70 % and beyond that coke is dumped. The performance per man and shift in the mines declined by 25 %.
This is partly in consequence of the closures of the high efficient mines Ensdorf and Walsum. The sales of German coal fell from 5.8 million ton by 2.5 million t to 3.3 million ton. The biggest part of the decline in sales is due to the slowdown in German industrial production. The stocks rose by 0.6 million ton to 4.3 million ton. Until May 2009 the stocks increased to round 5 million ton.
The difficult sales situation continues. The steel boom and the expected shortages caused the coking coal prices in 2008 to rise to historic record heights. At this time, deductions of 60% are being negotiated, but it remains to be seen whether this price level, which is still high, will be able to stay here in view of the weak demand.Coke prices fell as well. For all practical purposes, the world market for coke collapsed in the first quarter of 2009. Instead of the normal 3 million ton, the world market leader China exported a mere 150,000 ton in the first quarter 2009.
" Nevertheless, the official export prices amount to round US$ 400.00. But in Europe comparable coke is traded at US$ 190.00 " German Coal Importers Association
Freight Rates
Freight rates reached historic record highs in 2008. The freight rate Richards Bay – Rotterdam for Cape size ships rose to US$ 50/ton, only to crash to US$ 5 / ton (–90%) by December 2008.
In the meantime, freight rates have recovered slightly and are again on the rise. However, the overall expectation is that the sinking volume of bulk cargo on the world market and rising fleet capacity will prevent any excessive fluctuations for the moment.
Germany
Germany’s coal market shrank by about 5 million t in 2008. But since domestic output fell by almost 4 million t, imports remained stable. There were virtually no effects on quantities from the steel crisis in 2008.
We expect a substantial decline in imports of 22% for 2009, a consequence of the steel crisis and a lower demand for electric power. While in the past the onus of adapting to collapses in demand fell on German coal production, there will this year, for the first time, be a major blow on import coal, but the great flexibility of the world market means that there will not be any problems adjusting to this situation.
Import prices for steam coal are also falling quickly. Prices fell to €83 t/TCE in March 2009 from the highest value of the border-crossing price (BAFA price) of €136 t/TCE in August 2008. We expect the price to continue to decline to €65-70 t/TCE by the end of 2009.
"As the US dollar is once again showing a weakening tendency, imports in Euros could become cheaper" German Coal Importers Association
Outlook 2009
World coal production in 2009 will continue to increase as a consequence of the great demand for electric power in the Asian region. But this growth will be weaker than in the past. China, India and Indonesia are planning significant increases in output.
World trade in steam coal will presumably remain stable, but the coking coal world market will probably decline by 40–50 million ton or 20% – 25%. The pendulum has swung back to a buyer’s market and will undoubtedly keep pressure on the world market prices for coking coal and steam coal in 2009.
The years 2007 and 2008 were marked by high investment spending in the coal mining industry worldwide. After an estimation of IEA for 2009 a reduction by round 40 % is expected.
Short-term – i.e. in the following 2 – 3 years, the reduced investment activity might not impact the markets. It has also to be concerned, that coal projects in 2 – 5 years and in this way in comparison to crude oil and gas projects – can go into production in the short run.
Analyzed by: KOHLENIMPORTEURE E.V. (Coal Importers Association), Hamburg
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Wednesday, 01 July 09
NEWCASTLE WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS RISE BY 12PCT
Bloomberg reported that Coal shipments from Australia’s Newcastle port, the world’s biggest export harbor for the fuel, gained 12% last ...
Wednesday, 01 July 09
RS 6,000CR MMTC COAL IMPORT PLAN UNDER CLOUD
The plan of MMTC Ltd, a trading firm under the commerce ministry, to import coal worth Rs 6,000 crore has come under cloud, with the Central ...
Wednesday, 01 July 09
INDONESIAN FIRM BIDS FOR 130,000T COAL FOR NAPOCOR
Top Philippine electricity producer National Power Corp. (Napocor) said on Wednesday it received two bids from Indonesia's PT Trubaindo and its loc ...
Wednesday, 01 July 09
COAL PRICE INDEX TO BE LAUNCHED IN JULY
India will soon get a coal index to track the coal price movement in the country.
India's leading e-commerce company Mjunction Services Ltd will ...
Wednesday, 01 July 09
COAL INDIA SEEKS FASTER APPROVALS, IMPORTS, OVERSEAS MINERS
Coal India Ltd., the world’s biggest coal producer, wants mining approvals sped up to help it boost production to meet a widening supply short ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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