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Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
 COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed government's stance towards growth. As the first half of 2013 progressed, market pundits and analysts alike realized that the much trailed big and painful shift in China's GDP model is truly underway...
Any skeptics of the above claim, feel free to ask the Chinese banks who felt the wrath of government regulators last month as the cash crunch in China's interbank lending market has only further exposed the fundamental problem of its economic distortions. For policymakers who are still pondering whether to pursue restructuring or growth, the answer seems more obvious than ever: there can be no growth without restructuring.
Over the past 10 years China has relied on a development model that uses high debt towards large –predominantly state owned - companies to finance growth, with much of the capital invested in unproductive sectors such as property and financial products. Regulators seem to understand that sustainability cannot occur without targeting the problems of excess capacity and high debt through the encouragement/development of private enterprises. Support should only follow companies that can survive in a competitive arena and what better
industry to challenge the boundaries of international competition than shipping.
It is easy for shipping analysts and all other parties involved within the maritime industry to relate themselves with inefficiencies of Chinese finance; whilst “too big to fail” companies keep receiving finance and loans for over leveraged projects based on exuberant asset values, there are serious, conservative and cash rich private entities that are below the radar of most Chinese banks.
Clearly the fewer distortions in an economy, the faster the market can recover and adjust. As China is following the same route of most western economies in deleveraging to bring risks down, one must not forget that China is in a much better position now that the USA was 5 years ago; "Insurance companies, social security funds, foreign exchange savings and private savings are all sources that could be tapped to meet the demand for capital".
Eventually, some measures, including the intensified property tightening campaign, new rules to curb misuse of public funds and the exit from some previous stimulus policies, have taken their toll on growth and whilst analysts argue this is only for the short term, it remains to be seen what the nett effect will be for the long run. Whilst many “western” reports have once again taken their typical stance of overly dramatizing the position of the Chinese economy, we must not forget that policymakers in China were the ones who shed light on these issues and look determined in carving the path for future sustainable growth.
My intention to spend more space and analyze my ideas about the need for growth-even at slower pace-in China was abruptly hushed by news this morning that the government of Enrique Pepa Nieto, the President of Mexico has announced its new six-year plan to invest $316bn in new roads, railways, telecoms, infrastructure and significant port overhauling... rings any bells???
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk index was back on the rise this week as both Capes and Panamaxes gained from firmer activity in the Atlantic basin. This may well be the last surge before the summer lull so owners are hoping that they can keep the momentum for as long as they can in the hope that they will keep rates fairly buoyant in August.
The BDI closed today (16/07/2013) at 1152 points, up by 1 point compared to Monday’s levels (15/07/2013) and an increase of 32 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (09/07/2013).
Things were not so positive this week in the crude oil carriers, were we saw a drop all around caused by the coinciding of decreased demand and firmer bunker prices. The BDTI Monday (15/07/2013), was at 611 points, up by 5 points and the BCTI at 574, an increase of 15 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (08/07/2013).
Broker's insight
by George Dermatis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
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Tuesday, 11 June 13
COAL: NO SIGN OF RECOVERY - GABRIELLA
COALspot.com: We attended the 19th Annual Coaltrans Asia Conference, where we found most of the speakers were not very optimistic on the outlook for ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ENDED 11 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,104,509 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 11 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 0.03 percent week on week but gained 0.07 pe ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
IRON ORE DEMAND: WEAK; COAL MOVEMENT: STEADY TO INDIA AND CHINA - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with BDI up by 0.37 per cent closed at 812 points this week.
The Cape index was also ended in ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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