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Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
 COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed government's stance towards growth. As the first half of 2013 progressed, market pundits and analysts alike realized that the much trailed big and painful shift in China's GDP model is truly underway...
Any skeptics of the above claim, feel free to ask the Chinese banks who felt the wrath of government regulators last month as the cash crunch in China's interbank lending market has only further exposed the fundamental problem of its economic distortions. For policymakers who are still pondering whether to pursue restructuring or growth, the answer seems more obvious than ever: there can be no growth without restructuring.
Over the past 10 years China has relied on a development model that uses high debt towards large –predominantly state owned - companies to finance growth, with much of the capital invested in unproductive sectors such as property and financial products. Regulators seem to understand that sustainability cannot occur without targeting the problems of excess capacity and high debt through the encouragement/development of private enterprises. Support should only follow companies that can survive in a competitive arena and what better
industry to challenge the boundaries of international competition than shipping.
It is easy for shipping analysts and all other parties involved within the maritime industry to relate themselves with inefficiencies of Chinese finance; whilst “too big to fail” companies keep receiving finance and loans for over leveraged projects based on exuberant asset values, there are serious, conservative and cash rich private entities that are below the radar of most Chinese banks.
Clearly the fewer distortions in an economy, the faster the market can recover and adjust. As China is following the same route of most western economies in deleveraging to bring risks down, one must not forget that China is in a much better position now that the USA was 5 years ago; "Insurance companies, social security funds, foreign exchange savings and private savings are all sources that could be tapped to meet the demand for capital".
Eventually, some measures, including the intensified property tightening campaign, new rules to curb misuse of public funds and the exit from some previous stimulus policies, have taken their toll on growth and whilst analysts argue this is only for the short term, it remains to be seen what the nett effect will be for the long run. Whilst many “western” reports have once again taken their typical stance of overly dramatizing the position of the Chinese economy, we must not forget that policymakers in China were the ones who shed light on these issues and look determined in carving the path for future sustainable growth.
My intention to spend more space and analyze my ideas about the need for growth-even at slower pace-in China was abruptly hushed by news this morning that the government of Enrique Pepa Nieto, the President of Mexico has announced its new six-year plan to invest $316bn in new roads, railways, telecoms, infrastructure and significant port overhauling... rings any bells???
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk index was back on the rise this week as both Capes and Panamaxes gained from firmer activity in the Atlantic basin. This may well be the last surge before the summer lull so owners are hoping that they can keep the momentum for as long as they can in the hope that they will keep rates fairly buoyant in August.
The BDI closed today (16/07/2013) at 1152 points, up by 1 point compared to Monday’s levels (15/07/2013) and an increase of 32 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (09/07/2013).
Things were not so positive this week in the crude oil carriers, were we saw a drop all around caused by the coinciding of decreased demand and firmer bunker prices. The BDTI Monday (15/07/2013), was at 611 points, up by 5 points and the BCTI at 574, an increase of 15 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (08/07/2013).
Broker's insight
by George Dermatis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here.
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Thursday, 18 July 13
DRY BULK MARKETS RETAINS RECENT GAINS, MOVES SIDEWAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on moving sideways this week, as evidenced by the latest trends of the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI ...
Wednesday, 17 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FELL 3.85% ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,860,149 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 15 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whet ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS REVISED DOWN ITS JULY BENCH-MARK COAL PRICE TO US$ 81.69 PER MT
COALspot. com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference dropped 3.75 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian government has revised down its owned coal ben ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDO COAL SWAPS ARE STRUGGLING FOR RIGHT DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Indo coal swaps are struggling to find the right direction. Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 d ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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