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Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
 COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed government's stance towards growth. As the first half of 2013 progressed, market pundits and analysts alike realized that the much trailed big and painful shift in China's GDP model is truly underway...
Any skeptics of the above claim, feel free to ask the Chinese banks who felt the wrath of government regulators last month as the cash crunch in China's interbank lending market has only further exposed the fundamental problem of its economic distortions. For policymakers who are still pondering whether to pursue restructuring or growth, the answer seems more obvious than ever: there can be no growth without restructuring.
Over the past 10 years China has relied on a development model that uses high debt towards large –predominantly state owned - companies to finance growth, with much of the capital invested in unproductive sectors such as property and financial products. Regulators seem to understand that sustainability cannot occur without targeting the problems of excess capacity and high debt through the encouragement/development of private enterprises. Support should only follow companies that can survive in a competitive arena and what better
industry to challenge the boundaries of international competition than shipping.
It is easy for shipping analysts and all other parties involved within the maritime industry to relate themselves with inefficiencies of Chinese finance; whilst “too big to fail” companies keep receiving finance and loans for over leveraged projects based on exuberant asset values, there are serious, conservative and cash rich private entities that are below the radar of most Chinese banks.
Clearly the fewer distortions in an economy, the faster the market can recover and adjust. As China is following the same route of most western economies in deleveraging to bring risks down, one must not forget that China is in a much better position now that the USA was 5 years ago; "Insurance companies, social security funds, foreign exchange savings and private savings are all sources that could be tapped to meet the demand for capital".
Eventually, some measures, including the intensified property tightening campaign, new rules to curb misuse of public funds and the exit from some previous stimulus policies, have taken their toll on growth and whilst analysts argue this is only for the short term, it remains to be seen what the nett effect will be for the long run. Whilst many “western” reports have once again taken their typical stance of overly dramatizing the position of the Chinese economy, we must not forget that policymakers in China were the ones who shed light on these issues and look determined in carving the path for future sustainable growth.
My intention to spend more space and analyze my ideas about the need for growth-even at slower pace-in China was abruptly hushed by news this morning that the government of Enrique Pepa Nieto, the President of Mexico has announced its new six-year plan to invest $316bn in new roads, railways, telecoms, infrastructure and significant port overhauling... rings any bells???
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk index was back on the rise this week as both Capes and Panamaxes gained from firmer activity in the Atlantic basin. This may well be the last surge before the summer lull so owners are hoping that they can keep the momentum for as long as they can in the hope that they will keep rates fairly buoyant in August.
The BDI closed today (16/07/2013) at 1152 points, up by 1 point compared to Monday’s levels (15/07/2013) and an increase of 32 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (09/07/2013).
Things were not so positive this week in the crude oil carriers, were we saw a drop all around caused by the coinciding of decreased demand and firmer bunker prices. The BDTI Monday (15/07/2013), was at 611 points, up by 5 points and the BCTI at 574, an increase of 15 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (08/07/2013).
Broker's insight
by George Dermatis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here.
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Thursday, 18 July 13
DRY BULK MARKETS RETAINS RECENT GAINS, MOVES SIDEWAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on moving sideways this week, as evidenced by the latest trends of the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI ...
Wednesday, 17 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FELL 3.85% ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,860,149 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 15 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whet ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS REVISED DOWN ITS JULY BENCH-MARK COAL PRICE TO US$ 81.69 PER MT
COALspot. com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference dropped 3.75 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian government has revised down its owned coal ben ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDO COAL SWAPS ARE STRUGGLING FOR RIGHT DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Indo coal swaps are struggling to find the right direction. Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 d ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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