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Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
 COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed government's stance towards growth. As the first half of 2013 progressed, market pundits and analysts alike realized that the much trailed big and painful shift in China's GDP model is truly underway...
Any skeptics of the above claim, feel free to ask the Chinese banks who felt the wrath of government regulators last month as the cash crunch in China's interbank lending market has only further exposed the fundamental problem of its economic distortions. For policymakers who are still pondering whether to pursue restructuring or growth, the answer seems more obvious than ever: there can be no growth without restructuring.
Over the past 10 years China has relied on a development model that uses high debt towards large –predominantly state owned - companies to finance growth, with much of the capital invested in unproductive sectors such as property and financial products. Regulators seem to understand that sustainability cannot occur without targeting the problems of excess capacity and high debt through the encouragement/development of private enterprises. Support should only follow companies that can survive in a competitive arena and what better
industry to challenge the boundaries of international competition than shipping.
It is easy for shipping analysts and all other parties involved within the maritime industry to relate themselves with inefficiencies of Chinese finance; whilst “too big to fail” companies keep receiving finance and loans for over leveraged projects based on exuberant asset values, there are serious, conservative and cash rich private entities that are below the radar of most Chinese banks.
Clearly the fewer distortions in an economy, the faster the market can recover and adjust. As China is following the same route of most western economies in deleveraging to bring risks down, one must not forget that China is in a much better position now that the USA was 5 years ago; "Insurance companies, social security funds, foreign exchange savings and private savings are all sources that could be tapped to meet the demand for capital".
Eventually, some measures, including the intensified property tightening campaign, new rules to curb misuse of public funds and the exit from some previous stimulus policies, have taken their toll on growth and whilst analysts argue this is only for the short term, it remains to be seen what the nett effect will be for the long run. Whilst many “western” reports have once again taken their typical stance of overly dramatizing the position of the Chinese economy, we must not forget that policymakers in China were the ones who shed light on these issues and look determined in carving the path for future sustainable growth.
My intention to spend more space and analyze my ideas about the need for growth-even at slower pace-in China was abruptly hushed by news this morning that the government of Enrique Pepa Nieto, the President of Mexico has announced its new six-year plan to invest $316bn in new roads, railways, telecoms, infrastructure and significant port overhauling... rings any bells???
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk index was back on the rise this week as both Capes and Panamaxes gained from firmer activity in the Atlantic basin. This may well be the last surge before the summer lull so owners are hoping that they can keep the momentum for as long as they can in the hope that they will keep rates fairly buoyant in August.
The BDI closed today (16/07/2013) at 1152 points, up by 1 point compared to Monday’s levels (15/07/2013) and an increase of 32 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (09/07/2013).
Things were not so positive this week in the crude oil carriers, were we saw a drop all around caused by the coinciding of decreased demand and firmer bunker prices. The BDTI Monday (15/07/2013), was at 611 points, up by 5 points and the BCTI at 574, an increase of 15 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (08/07/2013).
Broker's insight
by George Dermatis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here.
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Monday, 05 August 13
INDO GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED HBA IN AUGUST '13 FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY '10
COALspot. com - HBA fell to US$ 76.70 this month, the lowest since January 2010. Indonesian Coal Price Reference fell 6.11% and hitting a 2013 ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
COAL SWAP MARKET HAS LOST DIRECTION; STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average October 2013 delivery slightly down on day, week and month on Friday, 2 A ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT SOFT DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was fairly steady this week with the BDI recovering towards north since second half of the week with the support o ...
Friday, 02 August 13
DRY BULK MARKET STABILIZES ON RENEWED MARKET ACTIVITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its positive footing this week, although it's still a far cry to deem the market situation as a growing one, especiall ...
Friday, 02 August 13
ASIA ACCOUNTS FOR 27.95 PERCENT OF US COAL EXPORTS IN Q1, 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.80 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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