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Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whether more production will be shut down. Wood Mackenzie estimates that in 2013, only 4 million tonnes (mt) of coal production in Australia is at risk of closure even though 32mt of coal will be produced at negative margins, including sustaining capital. The decision to continue production instead of shutting it down can mainly be attributed to transport and port contracts in Australia, otherwise known as 'take-or-pay' contracts.
Take-or-pay contracts are fixed cost contracts that result in most producers paying for capacity regardless of tonnes shipped. Stronger growth in exports relative to new capacity build will reduce the average cost per tonne that miners pay for not fully utilising contracted capacity.
Mr. Viktor Tanevski, Coal Cost Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, says, "There have only been two mine closures so far in 2013 compared to seven in 2012. Despite the low coal price environment and current margin squeeze, take-or-pay contracts are incentivising coal producers to increase rather than reduce production, even if additional production is generating negative cash margins. This is because the fixed cost of infrastructure capacity makes the cost of shutting down even more expensive than the cost of maintaining production."
"We estimate that only 4mt, or just over 1% of Australia's coal exports in 2013, is at risk of closure based on Hard Coking Coal (HCC) price of US$171/t and thermal coal price of US$92/t. This is not a significant volume of output; however the amount at risk increases significantly under a lower price scenario.
Wood Mackenzie analyses that if average prices fall to US$122/t for HCC and US$77/t for thermal coal in 2013, then 45mt or 13% of Australia's coal exports in 2013 will be at risk of closure. At that price, a total of 204mt of production will be suffering negative margins.
In summary, Mr. Tanevski says, "Our expectation is that there will not be a significant dent in Australia's production this year. However, if prices do fall below expectations, the risk of closure for mines producing at negative margins will increase, reducing output."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world's energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit Wood Mackenzie.
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here.
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Thursday, 18 July 13
DRY BULK MARKETS RETAINS RECENT GAINS, MOVES SIDEWAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on moving sideways this week, as evidenced by the latest trends of the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI ...
Wednesday, 17 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FELL 3.85% ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,860,149 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 15 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed governm ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS REVISED DOWN ITS JULY BENCH-MARK COAL PRICE TO US$ 81.69 PER MT
COALspot. com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference dropped 3.75 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian government has revised down its owned coal ben ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDO COAL SWAPS ARE STRUGGLING FOR RIGHT DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Indo coal swaps are struggling to find the right direction. Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 d ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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