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Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whether more production will be shut down. Wood Mackenzie estimates that in 2013, only 4 million tonnes (mt) of coal production in Australia is at risk of closure even though 32mt of coal will be produced at negative margins, including sustaining capital. The decision to continue production instead of shutting it down can mainly be attributed to transport and port contracts in Australia, otherwise known as 'take-or-pay' contracts.
Take-or-pay contracts are fixed cost contracts that result in most producers paying for capacity regardless of tonnes shipped. Stronger growth in exports relative to new capacity build will reduce the average cost per tonne that miners pay for not fully utilising contracted capacity.
Mr. Viktor Tanevski, Coal Cost Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, says, "There have only been two mine closures so far in 2013 compared to seven in 2012. Despite the low coal price environment and current margin squeeze, take-or-pay contracts are incentivising coal producers to increase rather than reduce production, even if additional production is generating negative cash margins. This is because the fixed cost of infrastructure capacity makes the cost of shutting down even more expensive than the cost of maintaining production."
"We estimate that only 4mt, or just over 1% of Australia's coal exports in 2013, is at risk of closure based on Hard Coking Coal (HCC) price of US$171/t and thermal coal price of US$92/t. This is not a significant volume of output; however the amount at risk increases significantly under a lower price scenario.
Wood Mackenzie analyses that if average prices fall to US$122/t for HCC and US$77/t for thermal coal in 2013, then 45mt or 13% of Australia's coal exports in 2013 will be at risk of closure. At that price, a total of 204mt of production will be suffering negative margins.
In summary, Mr. Tanevski says, "Our expectation is that there will not be a significant dent in Australia's production this year. However, if prices do fall below expectations, the risk of closure for mines producing at negative margins will increase, reducing output."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world's energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit Wood Mackenzie.
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here.
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Tuesday, 27 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMPED 15.59 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 15.59 per cent week on week to 2.76 million mt for ...
Monday, 26 August 13
CARRIAGE OF COAL CARGOES FROM KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA - WEST OF ENGLAND P&I CLUB
The Club has recently been advised by consulting scientists and engineers Dr J H Burgoyne and Partners (International) Limited that the number of in ...
Sunday, 25 August 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: HEADING TO NORTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery US$ 2.39 up month on month. The swap was moved positive ...
Sunday, 25 August 13
THE FREIGHT MARKET S7 & S8 SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY/FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to be firm with all indices moved positive except for Panamax which was slightly down (2 pct down).
T ...
Friday, 23 August 13
US PRODUCED MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.80 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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