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Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whether more production will be shut down. Wood Mackenzie estimates that in 2013, only 4 million tonnes (mt) of coal production in Australia is at risk of closure even though 32mt of coal will be produced at negative margins, including sustaining capital. The decision to continue production instead of shutting it down can mainly be attributed to transport and port contracts in Australia, otherwise known as 'take-or-pay' contracts.
Take-or-pay contracts are fixed cost contracts that result in most producers paying for capacity regardless of tonnes shipped. Stronger growth in exports relative to new capacity build will reduce the average cost per tonne that miners pay for not fully utilising contracted capacity.
Mr. Viktor Tanevski, Coal Cost Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, says, "There have only been two mine closures so far in 2013 compared to seven in 2012. Despite the low coal price environment and current margin squeeze, take-or-pay contracts are incentivising coal producers to increase rather than reduce production, even if additional production is generating negative cash margins. This is because the fixed cost of infrastructure capacity makes the cost of shutting down even more expensive than the cost of maintaining production."
"We estimate that only 4mt, or just over 1% of Australia's coal exports in 2013, is at risk of closure based on Hard Coking Coal (HCC) price of US$171/t and thermal coal price of US$92/t. This is not a significant volume of output; however the amount at risk increases significantly under a lower price scenario.
Wood Mackenzie analyses that if average prices fall to US$122/t for HCC and US$77/t for thermal coal in 2013, then 45mt or 13% of Australia's coal exports in 2013 will be at risk of closure. At that price, a total of 204mt of production will be suffering negative margins.
In summary, Mr. Tanevski says, "Our expectation is that there will not be a significant dent in Australia's production this year. However, if prices do fall below expectations, the risk of closure for mines producing at negative margins will increase, reducing output."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world's energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit Wood Mackenzie.
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here.
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Friday, 20 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW HEIGHTS THIS WEEK STANDING AT THREE-YEAR HIGH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The biggest rally of the dry bulk market in more than three years have brought back joy among ship owners, especially those active in the Capesize m ...
Friday, 20 September 13
US COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 20.30 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 20 September 13
COLOMBIA SHIPPED 31.14 MILLION TONS OF THERMAL COAL IN H1
COALspot.com : Colombia’s coal exports fell by 20.59 percent in June 2013 compared to Colombia’s May's export of 7,633,579 MT.
Colom ...
Thursday, 19 September 13
CAPESIZE : AVERAGE DAILY EARNINGS HAVE GAINED ALMOST USD 6K WOW - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The rates in Feast are still firm this week even the activity calmed down a bit as chrtrs are not in a rush to cover even their end Sept carg ...
Wednesday, 18 September 13
IRON ORE AND ZINC ARE BEST PERFORMING MINING SECTORS IN CURRENT LOW PRICE, HIGH COST ENVIRONMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
With the fall in commodity prices, cash margins in the mining industry have come under pressure. Accordingly, producers and investors are placing in ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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