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Tuesday, 09 July 13
COAL PRICE REMAINS SLUGGISH - TRIMEGAH


COALspot.com - Newcastle coal price has reached US$ 76.30/ton (-15.9% YTD), bringing YTD’13 average to stand at US$ 87.90/ton, 6.80% lower than 2012 average of US$ 94.30/ton, Trimegah Securities said in a note on Tuesday.

According to Trimegah, slowing coal demand growth in China, insignificant demand improvement from the Europe, US dollar appreciation and weak coal demand in the U.S. which drives producers to flood global market with coal supply, had driven coal price to reach its lowest level since Nov’09.

Thus, we revise down our 2013 benchmark coal price assumption to USD80/ton (from USD95/ton), in 2014, we expect coal price to increase to US$ 85/ton as we expect global demand would slightly improve on expectation of natural gas price increase in the U.S. (from current level of US$ 3.62/mmbtu), resulting in increasing coal demand in the country.

Trimegah Securities also revised down the benchmark coal price for 2014 and 2015. Trimegah believes that, the coal price improvement would not be more than US$ 5/ mt per annum at least until 2015 due to low demand.

- 2013 US$/ton 80.00 from its previous forecast of US$ 95.00/ton
- 2014 US$/ton 85.00 from its previous forecast of US$ 100.00/ton
- 2015 US$/ton 90.00 from its previous forecast of US$ 105.00/ton

Trimegah Securities also slashed its target price on shares of an Indonesian coal miner on expectations of lower earnings and weak coal prices.

About Trimegah Securities
Established in May 1990, now Trimegah Securities is more than just one of the largest and fully integrated securities companies in Indonesia. It is admittedly one of the most trusted securities companies in Indonesia.



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