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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 13 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 30.61 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 30.61 per cent week on week to 2.95 million mt for ...
Monday, 12 August 13
GBCE SUCCESSFUL IN UPGRADING LOW RANK INDONESIAN COAL ON INDUSTRIAL SCALE
COALspot.com : GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) has annoused that, the company has successfully upgraded 2,426 tonnes of low rank 4,018 kcal NAR Ind ...
Monday, 12 August 13
INDIA - SAFE SHIPMENT OF IRON ORE FINES FROM INDIAN PORTS - WEST OF ENGLAND P&I CLUB
As Members may be aware, in 2009 two ships, the ‘Asian Forest’ and the ‘Black Rose’, capsized and sank following the liquefa ...
Sunday, 11 August 13
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS : FLAT ON DAY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery flat on day due to holidays in Indonesia, Malaysia & ...
Sunday, 11 August 13
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA CONTINUED TO BE SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was soft this week with all indices down , the reason could be long weekend holidays in Indonesia, Singapore and M ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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