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Thursday, 13 June 13
HARD COAL IMPORTS RISE SHARPLY IN GERMANY IN Q1 2013 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
 Coal-fired Power Plants in Germany: Pillars of the Grid and the Energy Turnaround; Hard Coal Consumption and Hard Coal Imports Rise Sharply in Germany in Q1 2013
COALspot.com - The Coal Importer Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V., VDKi) of Germany presented the initial figures from the world hard coal market and the German hard coal import market for Q1 2013 at its annual Members’ Assembly, held in Hamburg.
During his report to the members, Dr Wolfgang Cieslik, the Coal Importer Association’s CEO and executive officer at Steag GmbH, spoke about current topics of interest for the energy economy.
World Hard Coal Consumption
The rise in world consumption of hard coal in 2011 by 2.3% (= 380 million TCE) to 17.3 billion TCE was primarily a consequence of the rise in hard coal consumption of about 5% (= 240 million TCE) to 5.5 billion TCE. The VDKi expects yet another worldwide increase in hard coal consumption of about 300 million tonnes, corresponding to growth of over 5%, for 2012.
When it came to predictions for 2013, the Coal Importer Association showed its cautious side: economic outlook for 2013 tends to be rather reserved for the OECD, and even the economies in the Asian countries, previously the driving factor behind the dynamics, have lost some of their impetus. The recession is apparently taking hold in Europe and has reached Germany as well. As a consequence, the Coal Importer Association determined stagnation or only a slight rise in the demand for electric power at the end of Q1 as well as a decline in iron and steel production in the Pacific region.
According to the estimates by the Coal Importer Association, seaborne global hard coal trade grew by only 47 million tonnes (slightly over 4%) during the first three months of this year.
Europe and Germany
The situation appears rather different in Europe. Essentially, Europe currently has large surpluses. The only contrary trend is that the declining hard coal output in Germany, Spain and Poland is being compensated in part by imports. However, the recession, above all in the Southern European countries of the euro zone which are still in crisis, has caused lower power consumption. The long winter and the lower clean dark spread (costs for coal, freight and CO2 certificates) in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) favour coal imports to Europe, especially to Germany, the UK, Spain and Italy.
On the other hand, the continued growth in the feed-in of power from renewable energy sources, especially from photovoltaics, in Germany, Italy and Spain could have a dampening effect on the demand for coal, especially in the summer months. In this respect, the utilization of steam coal is increasingly becoming an inverse function of the amount of sunlight.
Nevertheless, the results from the first quarter of 2013 for Germany give the VDKi reason to be cautiously optimistic:
-- Power generation from hard coal-fired power plants in Germany rose by an estimated 3 TWh to about 42 TWh;
-- According to data from the AGEB, hard coal consumption for power generation rose by 14.5% to 14.5 million TCE;
-- Provisional calculations from the Coal Importer Association shows that the import of steam coal increased by about 2 million tonnes to over 10 million tonnes;
-- Gross power export rose by almost 70% in comparison with the same period of the previous year to 21 TWh; less imports, there is still an export surplus of 12 TWh, generated primarily in hard coal-fired power plants.
In his remarks on the energy business, the CEO paid special attention to the future role of hard coal-fired power plants for the energy turnaround.
“They are not only indispensable for the energy turnaround, they are in actual fact the true pillars of the grid, and will remain so today and tomorrow. This has been unambiguously documented in the Prognos study commissioned by the Coal Importer Association. Starting from the basis of the targets set forth by the German government, the study comes to the conclusion that the thermal hard coal-fired power plants and their dependable availability will remain the foundation of power supply security even in 2050, despite the growing generation of power from wind and photovoltaic farms.” But Cieslik warned against becoming too euphoric.
According to Cieslik, “The thermal power plants urgently need a new power market design within a functioning energy-only market. The current market design distorts competition, featuring as it does subsidies of renewable energies via the EEG and the right to prioritised feed-in regardless of the actual demand for power, and puts thermal power plants at a competitive disadvantage, posing a genuine threat to their continued operation and evolvement for the security of supplies and the affordability of power.” Since politicians are generally aware of this and enough proposals for a revision of the power market, in particular the introduction of capacity markets, have been put on the table, Cieslik is calling for the political world to come up with a new power market design, one which also includes a reform of the EEG.
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Regarding the countries of origin, strikes and other supply disruptions in Colombia significantly shifted the relationships among procurement sources during the first quarter. 31% of all hard coal was procured from Russia, followed by 23% from the USA. Colombia, the second-most important coal supplier for Germany in 2012, fell to third place and provided only 14%. The significance of South Africa for German hard coal imports improved again to 9%.
Source: Coal Importer Association, Germany (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V., VDKi)
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