We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 11 June 13
COAL: NO SIGN OF RECOVERY - GABRIELLA
 COALspot.com: We attended the 19th Annual Coaltrans Asia Conference, where we found most of the speakers were not very optimistic on the outlook for coal mining in the months ahead. The main concern is abundant supply outreaching demand growth.
We maintain an UNDERWEIGHT recommendation on the sector.
However, for investors still seeking some exposure to the coal mining sector, PTBA is a solid defensive play given:
1) its low cost structure and defensive earnings,
2) its abundant reserves supporting strong production growth and
3) its strong balance sheet. Going forward, we foresee further declines in EPS due to continued depressed coal prices which will result in lower Target Prices from current levels. Below are some key takeaways:
Coal Mining Conditions in Indonesia as the biggest exporter
As of May 2013, Indonesia’s coal resources amounted to 159bn tons with coal reserves of 32bn tons – about 3% of the world’s coal reserves. Presently, there are 76 Coal Agreements (PKP2B) and 3,892 coal licenses (IUP). Most of them are for operations in Kalimantan and Sumatra. The majority are in Kalimantan which has 61 PKP2B (80%) and 2,670 IUP (69%). All in all, Kalimantan accounts for around 90% of the total national coal production. Most of the IUP (around 80%) are at the exploration stage with the rest in the production stage. There are problems with around 400 IUP. Most of the coal production is undertaken by coal agreement holders and SOE (which account for around 70% of the national coal production).
Fuelling Indonesia’s domestic coal demand: an additional 55GW of power generation capacity
Indonesia’s electricity demand growth is still high (9.4% per year), with PLN, the state electricity company as the biggest coal buyer in Indonesia (66mn tons in 2013). PLN has stated that electricity supply in Indonesia will continue to rely on coal fired power plants (CFPP) for at least the next 10 years given the relatively cheap production costs involved. By 2020, PLN expects total additional power generation capacity to reach 55GW (PLN: 31GW, IPP: 24GW). Of this amount, 35GW or 65% is expected to come from coal power plants translating into additional coal demand of around 100mn tons p.a.
China’s Coal Import Restrictions: 50mn tons from Indonesia
From 2010 to 2012, China’s thermal coal imports increased each year, more than doubling from 71mn tons to 155mn tons, with Indonesia’s thermal coal amounting to 54% of the total in 2012. This year, China is expected to import 380mn tons of coal in total (+31% or half last year’s growth rate). One of the hot issues being discussed was China’s coal import restrictions stipulating: 1) a minimum CV of 3,750kcal/kg (NAR), 2) maximum sulphur content of 2% and 3) maximum ash content of 25%. Around 30% of China’s steam coal imports - or about 50mn tons coming from Indonesia - were lignite. India would benefit from China implementing an imports ban as it would mean lower prices. In 1Q13, however, China’s coal imports still showed an increase of 30% yoy.
Future of Indonesia’s low rank coal
The government seeks a greater role for domestic coal, especially in LRC (mine mouth power plants, gasification, liquefaction). Indonesia has abundant low rank coal resources, accounting for 40% of Indonesia’s total resources, with medium and high rank coal accounting for about 50% and 10%, respectively. There is a need to foster greater international cooperation to develop the technology for the utilization of low rank coal for domestic needs by implementing Clean Coal Technologies with build operate transfer schemes (BOT schemes) to improve calorific value and efficiency.
A Challenging Outlook
The outlook for coal mining will remain challenging, in our view, given the currently depressed coal prices (down 5% average YTD) and persistent global economic headwinds. China and India combined account for more than 30% of the world’s seaborne import volume. Their dominance is expected to continue with potential growth seen in India. Environmental and Regulatory issues will limit coal imports growth, however, as reflected in China’s draft proposal for a ban on imports and the current development of Hydropower and Nuclear generation.
Adding to the woes, Indonesia’s new draft regulation (increasing coal royalties, export quotas) has worsened the investment climate for coal producers in the country.
The author of this article Ms. Maureen Natasha, an equity analyst in PT Danareksa Sekuritas. Danareksa is a pioneering Indonesian financial institution and was the first to introduce mutual funds in Indonesia. It was also the first to launch a US Dollar-denominated fixed-income fund and promote syariah-based investments. Today, Danareksa is the only local company to offer direct market access services to clients worldwide and has grown to become the company that has underwritten the most equity and debt placements in Indonesia.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com. This article is subject to disclaimer terms of PT. Danareksa Sekuritas.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 12 June 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIDES TO 2013 LOW
COALspot.com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference continues to take its lumps this month, dropping about 0.54 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ENDED 11 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,104,509 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 11 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 0.03 percent week on week but gained 0.07 pe ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
IRON ORE DEMAND: WEAK; COAL MOVEMENT: STEADY TO INDIA AND CHINA - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with BDI up by 0.37 per cent closed at 812 points this week.
The Cape index was also ended in ...
|
|
|
Showing 4251 to 4255 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
|
| |
| |
|
