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Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as freight rates haven't had that necessary push to jumpstart. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, "this has been reflected in the continuous drop in price for the commodity which was on an almost free-fall course from its latest price peak of $158.9 per dry ton reached on the 20th of February. The significantly slower economic momentum of China has slashed demand for this development-linked commodity, dragging both the price as well as the freight cost to multi-month lows. This is set to continue for most of the year, with destocking still a central strategy in China", the report said.
According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Research Analyst with Intermodal, "the industry view tends to be that for the long-run, even these bottom-of-the-cycle prices are much higher than what most analysts believe should be the prevailing level. This leads to an expectation of surplus production which eventually could lead to problems in ship-ping, as sources such as South Africa increase their stake in China’s iron ore imports, slashing in turn tonne-mile demand for Capes.
The question that is of more vital importance and an ongoing topic of conversation this year amongst shipping circles is; When can we expect an improvement in market fundamentals?
The answer is looking somewhat more worrying for Capes. It will take a lot more than just cheap commodity prices to get things going again. The Chinese slowdown does not seem to be a temporary hiccup and as such people should be taking it more serious", he noted.
With China accounting last year for 47% of global steel production, there is no debate as to who drives the demand for Capes. "Being heavily dependent on Chinese heavy industry production and investment in infrastructure any further slowdown in economic growth has an imminent impact on freight rates for this sector. Without this driving demand it is hard for this segment to see the sharp rise in freight rates and secondhand prices that many had hoped we would reach within this year. Nevertheless it’s not all black. Baosteel sees a 1-2 pct increase in Chinese steel production this year. The year-to-date increase in output of 7% shows a promise for improved markets in the final quarter, while at the same time it would take a substantial slow-down in output in the second-half for there to be a year-on-year drop in Chinese steel output", Lazaridis said.
With all the above in mind a few questions arise, like for instance, where is the basis for all this business being reported in the Capesize market? Is there a sense that previous bullish sentiment for this size group is leading new investment without there being a real demand for further fleet growth? Could this lead to further dragging out of sub-performing markets?
According to Lazaridis' viewpoint, "over the past couple of months we have seen the majority of trading sessions being reported at average freight figures bellow what is expected for most owners to cover OPEX. Even on some of the more positive trading days, TCE increases are temporary and usually attributed to momentary decreases in bunker costs as well as slow steaming throughout the fleet which helps increase what little extra earnings owners can squeeze out of the current market rates. The counter argument to this can be found in part in the wisdom of old. Through most shipping cycles owners have usually taken a long-term position hoping to make high gains through the cycle rather than only looking to act during periods where the market is on the rise. If they waited for the later we would not have any ship owners left. This may explain activity in the secondhand market however things are very different when it comes to newbuildings. Capesize newbuilding designs have not had the same overhaul in performance that we have seen in other size segments. So why are owner’s risking of drowning the market with further ordering when there are plenty of well-priced secondhand units available. It seems to be yet again the case of easier financing, respectively lower prices, easi-er payment terms and forward delivery that have the upside of even gaining in value before you have made full payment. As promising as all these sound to a potential buyer, a word of caution to the brave, “as you sow, so shall you reap”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 12 June 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIDES TO 2013 LOW
COALspot.com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference continues to take its lumps this month, dropping about 0.54 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
COAL: NO SIGN OF RECOVERY - GABRIELLA
COALspot.com: We attended the 19th Annual Coaltrans Asia Conference, where we found most of the speakers were not very optimistic on the outlook for ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ENDED 11 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,104,509 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 11 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 0.03 percent week on week but gained 0.07 pe ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
IRON ORE DEMAND: WEAK; COAL MOVEMENT: STEADY TO INDIA AND CHINA - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with BDI up by 0.37 per cent closed at 812 points this week.
The Cape index was also ended in ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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