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Wednesday, 08 May 13
PANAMAX VESSELS PROVE TO BE "STARS OF THE MONTH" FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET DURING APRIL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


They have taken a beating on various occasions during the past few years of the dry bulk market's crisis, but the fact remains, that despite the heavy orderbook, Panamax dry bulk carriers, are among the most versatile ship types and this comes in handy when seasonal demand picks up. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, April was "a very positive month for Panamaxes despite the ever present fears regarding the scheduled for delivery for 2013. A lot of emphasis was placed on the much firmer grain market which allowed for ample of fresh inquiries to surface in the Atlantic basin and empty out much of the tonnage lists that had amassed. This however was only one side of the story, because at the same time and playing a much more significant role with regards to the longer-term prospects of this size segment, we witnessed a much stronger coal trade in the Pacific basin, as many traders were taking advantage of the softening prices for this important dry commodity. China’s and India’s energy appetite is still rising and their preference towards coal fired power plants means strong demand for thermal coal", Intermodal said.

According to analyst George Lazaridis, "Indonesia has been a prime supplier for both these markets for several years now. Being one of the largest exporters of coal worldwide, it is significant that they recently announced stellar results for the first quarter of 2013, with total exports of coal reaching just over 99 million tons (despite the heavy rainfall in the first two months which lead to slower production output) and around 80% of this being exported to two of the biggest importing countries which are China and India. At the same time, the Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry estimates that they will close off the year with a record number of close to 400 million metric tons of coal produced, which is a 3.6 per cent increase compared to the 386 million tons output of 2012. All this is in stark contrast to where we were at the end of August last year, were the slowing growth from China had shown an immediate negative impact in shipments from Indonesia. The difference since then is not only the improved economic conditions in China which has led to a ramping up of infrastructure spending and industrial production needs, but also a change in policy by the Indonesian government which has decided to drop its proposal to ban exports of lower-quality grades. This is quite significant as it has helped export volumes increase significantly, while for a more forward looking perspective it will help sustain the country’s exports as 93% of its coal reserves are below top quality", he said.

Lazaridis added that "Australia, the world’s second largest exporter of coal, has also ramped up investment in its coal mining, with several new mining projects underway. The level of investment that has gone into most of these projects shows the high level of commitment that many have in this sector and the promise it holds for further future growth despite the increased competition from alternative sources for power generation such as natural gas.

Japan’s coal imports are set to hit another record this year as most of its major power generation companies are making an effort to curb increased costs through cheaper fuel. Similarly many are expecting Chinese demand to increase from 500 million to 1 billion metric tons by 2030, while this enormous figure doesn’t even take into account any demand increase from other fast paced development countries such as India. It makes you wonder where this kind of growth will be supplied from. At the moment, as it stands, Indonesia, Australia, Russia and the U.S. are the only suppliers capable of producing more than 100 million tons of exports and the only likely candidates to be able to cover this need through their reserves" he stated.

According to Intemodal's analyst, "as it’s of little use to talk about that far ahead and turning our attention once more to the current state of things, it looks as though Panamaxes may well have a better year than was originally expected. There stil an orderbook of 408 vessels (roughly around 22% of the fleet) with 264 of these scheduled for delivery within 2013, nevertheless being a prime mover of coal within the Pacific and as long as the grain harvest in the U.S. and Russia turn out to be significantly better than what was seen in 2012, we may well see more promising rates within 2013", he concluded his monthly statement.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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