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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 11 April 13
TNEB HAS OPENED 4.2 MILLION TONS IMPORTED COAL TENDER
COALspot.com - TANGEDCO, the state run utility TANGEDCO (formerly known as TNEB), Tamil Nadu state owned electricity company has opened bids to purc ...
Wednesday, 10 April 13
US COAL CONSUMPTION TO INCREASE FROM 889 MMST IN 2012 TO 948 MMST IN 2013 AND 957 MMST IN 2014 - EIA
Based on estimates for the first quarter of 2013, American coal production has continued to decline.
Total production is down 9.9 million short t ...
Monday, 08 April 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.71 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 07 April 13
CHARTER RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO DECLINING DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to fall further with all the indices down.
The BDI was down by 5.38 pct closing at 861 points and the ...
Friday, 05 April 13
SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS TO GO LIVE
COALspot.com - The Exchange has announced that the SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap will go live for clearing on SGX-DC starting from 29 Ap ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
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