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Saturday, 23 March 13
WORLD COAL TRADE FIRST PASSES 1 BILLION TONS IN 2012 - VEREIN DER KOHLENIMPORTEURE E.V


Press Release: Hard coal imports to Germany on the previous year's level in spite of regenerative energies. Imports for power plants at an all-time high.

The Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. performed an initial preliminary assessment of the development of the global hard coal market and the German import hard coal market based on comprehensive evaluations and own calculations.

The final figures can only be published in the annual report of the VDKi at the middle of the year. Managing Director of the VDKi, Dr Erich Schmitz, on this: "We want to contribute to objectification of the energy politics debate with figures, data, facts and backgrounds. For decision makers in the industry and energy management, not only the development of regenerative energies but mainly that of hard coal on the global market, in Europe and in Germany is of great interest". 

Global Hard Coal Production
The global hard coal production should have exceeded the 7 Billion tons threshold for the first time in total. According to the VDKi, this development is essentially influenced by unimpaired production in Australia after the problems caused for months by flooding of Queensland in 2011. The VDKi believes that this led to an increase of production by 35-40 M t.

China likely also increased its production by another 50 to 60 M t for power generation in Chinese power plants. Apart from this, the image of the main production countries differs: South Africa could increase production by 8 to 10 M t and Colombia by 4-6 M t. Additionally, there are considerable new productions from Mongolia and Mozambique. In other countries, such as Indonesia, in contrast, hard coal production stagnates. Frequent reasons for this are strong rains that lead to temporary failure of production.

The production in the USA has clearly reduced. In consideration of the competition for the cheap shale gas, various hard coal deposits and high inner-American transport costs, there is hardly any chance to economically produce coal. Added to this are stricter environmental provisions that lead to partial relocation of power generation from old coal-fired power plants to gas-fired power plants near the shale-gas deposits. The reduction on the US home market was partially compensated for by greater exports. Due to the quantity pressure, steam coal was partially sold below the spot market price, which in turn had a price-dampening effect on the global market price. Germany hard coal consumers have profited from this development.

Global Seaborne Hard Coal Trade
Seaborne trade in hard coal exceeded the billion threshold for the first time in 2012 (previous year 978 M t). All in all, the VDKi has calculated that about 1,050 Bn. t of hard coal were transported by ship, corresponding to an increase of 72 M t or 7%. Internal trade is added to this. According to preliminary calculations of the VDKi, in particular Australia exported more than in 2011 at about 35 M t (or 12 %). Russia follows at + 18 M t (or 12%), the USA at + 16 M t (+ 20%) and South Africa at + 8 M t (or 13%). In contrast, China exported less, at - 5 M t (- 36%), as did Vietnam at - 2 M t (- 11%).

Hard Coal Imports to Germany
According to first evaluations, nearly as much hard coal, including coke and anthracite, (48 M t) as in the year before (48.4 M t) was imported to Germany.  While the coking coal and coke imports for the steel industry reduced by nearly 1.5 M t due to development of the economy, more coal than ever was imported for the power plants (nearly 35 M t). 

The imported hard coal of nearly 48 M t is structured as follows by countries of origin: 

Almost 20% more coal than in 2011 was imported from the USA (nearly 10 M t) - at  11.5 M t, Russia was once again the most important coal exporter for Germany.  Colombia, still the second-most important coal supplier for Germany in 2011, dropped to place three at 9.4 M t. (- 13%). The importance of South Africa for the German hard coal import is declining. At nearly 2 M t, about 25% less coal was imported from South Africa in 2012. The country increasingly aligns its market towards Asia.

All in all, the manager comments on this pleasant development with mixed feelings: "Contrary to expectations, the utilization of German hard coal in power plants was pleasantly high. Of course we were happy about the high imports that resulted. The coverage contributions achieved by this, however, are not sufficient during many hours of the day. The low CO2-certificate price, the dropped global market prices for coal and the still-high gas prices have helped the power plants in the Merit-Order, but the power generated was mainly exported to Holland, France and Denmark, since the high PV and wind power in feed caused a price drop at the German electricity exchange specifically during the peak hours that were so important for the coal-fired power plants, that importing power was more economically efficient for the neighboring countries than generating it.

The prices at the German electricity exchange EEG, however, are partially not even sufficient to balance out the fuel costs. The system of a regulated market with EEG compensation and priority in feed for regenerative energies on the one hand and power marketing from conventional power plants in a competitive market on the other hand does not go over well. We urgently require a new power market design in which the regenerative energies must align themselves in a market-oriented manner after  15 years of liberalization on the electricity market." 
Source: Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V.  (Germany Coal Importers Association)



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