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Friday, 15 March 13
CHEAP SHIP VALUATIONS DON'T NECESSARILY MEAN ATTRACTIVE SAYS VESSELS VALUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 With ship prices plunging by double-digits in the past few years, many ship owners are pondering their next moves in a market often described as attractive. But is this really the case, when taking into account other factors, like for instance freight rates? VesselsValue's Adrian Economakis, Strategy Director with the company describes the current and future trends of the ship valuation market. VesselsValue' service has been established as a leading tool among banks, ship onwers and investors in the maritime industry, seeking accurate valuations of various types of vessels.
During the past couple of years, we've seen ship values plunging across the board, as a result of the economical and shipping crisis. Based on your data, could you provide us with some info on the ship types which have been affected the most?
Since 1st Jan 2007, worst performing sectors in terms of asset price depreciation have been the large bulkers. For example, 5 year old Capes are currently at about 30% of their January 2007 value and less than 20% of their mid 2008 peak value. For example, a 5 year old 180k dwt Japanese/Korean built Cape is currently worth around usd 31.2m, while in August 2008 a 5 year old Cape was worth usd 164m and in Jan 2007 was worth usd 89m.
In contrast, of the sectors we currently cover, the best performing has been LNG closely followed by LPG. For example, a resale large LNG vessel (160k cbm) is currently worth about USD 205m while in August 2008 was worth about USD 195m and in Jan 2007 was worth USD 207m (i.e. there a very small decline (c3%) since 2007 and a small increase since summer 2008). This is drastically different to the huge drop in values experienced across the tank, bulk and container sectors.
Do you believe that current market valuations are really that attractive, when adding to the equation, the factor of low freight rates and oversupply of tonnage?
Prices across most of the traditional tank, bulk, container sectors are certainly cheap but this does not necessarily mean attractive. It really depends on your appetite for risk, your view on the future growth of international trade vs growth of the fleet and your investment timeframe.
The issue with buying “cheap” vessels is that they are cheap for a reason, notably due to the low earnings they currently achieve, poor expectations for the future and the current high cost of finance.
Unsurprisingly, the cheapest vessels are in sectors with the worst current earnings and the largest relative orderbooks. For example; Capes, Panamax bulkers, VLCC’s and some of the other larger types have recently had extended periods with earnings at or below their operating cost, resulting in an operating loss even before capital costs and overheads are taken into account. This effectively means that you can buy such a vessel at a cheap price but you will have to support the investment until the earnings improve significantly. Therefore, there is a significant risk in buying cheap vessels at this time in the market, but also the potential for significant gains in the medium to long run if earnings improve.
The sectors with the highest potential for improved earnings are those that have the highest potential for demand growth and lowest potential for fleet growth. In terms of demand, analysis needs to be done on a sector by sector basis, but it essentially depends on growth in the world economy and for the wet and gas sectors, the changing trends of energy demand and production. For example, forecasts of the growth in crude ton miles are currently rather conservative due to the growth in the demand and supply of Gas as an energy source. Also, the gradual movement of refineries to the east is believed to reduce the ton miles of crude and increase ton miles of products. In terms of vessel supply, it really depends on the relative size of the current orderbook and the capacity for new orders in the future. Generally, the more specialized the vessel type, the lower the capacity for future supply. However, these perceptions of demand and supply fundamentals are in many ways already priced into the market which is why we have seen the gas, offshore and to a lesser extent the chemical and product tanker sectors perform significantly better than the traditional crude, bulk and container sectors.
Saying all of this, the only thing that can be said for sure about the shipping market is that the future is unknown. There are many factors that could cause a sudden increase in global demand that could quickly make current prices seem incredibly attractive (and vica versa)
How do you expect the market to behave in the coming months? Do you think that ship prices will continue to fall in the near future?
It really depends on the sector. We continue to see downward pressure in the container sectors with the continuing troubles of the German KG’s. In contrast, we have seen a recent flattening of values and decline in volatility in the Bulk and Tank sectors following the steep drop over the last few years. The bright spark of the market has been the gas ships (LNG & LPG) which have maintained strong values and good earnings. In the near future, we expect this trend to continue, although we hope to see an improvement in product tanker values as their earnings have been pretty strong over the last 6 months or so.
Additionally, it depends on the age and design of the vessels. There is definitely a preference for new, eco designed vessels. We believe these will hold up their values better than the older less efficient vessels that are generally attracting bargain prices
Which was the driving force behind the spawning of Vessels Value?
Our CEO, Richard Rivlin was the real driving force behind the development of VesselsValue. After many years of working at the top of the S&P market, he identified the need for instant and accurate vessel valuation and supporting market intelligence. This need has grown significantly with the recent difficulties of the market. Banks, funds and increasingly owners have realized the huge benefits of having an objective and daily updated view of asset values and market intelligence.
What types of services do you provide?
-- Instant valuations for actual vessels, fleet and portfolios – updated and recalculated daily
-- Daily historical values, time series and excel exports
-- Transactions and vessel specifications
-- Fleet statistics
-- Advanced vessel search functionality
-- Portfolios and automated alerts
What types of ships are included in the valuations that you offer?
Types of ships currently valued:
-- Tankers over 29,500 dwt
-- Bulkers over 20,000 dwt,
-- Containers over 500 teu,
-- LNG & LPG vessels over 100 cbm in size
Shortly, the service will also cover the smaller vessel sizes and offshore.
Which are your main clients?
The main 3 client types are banks, investment funds and shipowners. We also provide our services to commodity & oil majors, brokers, class societies, insurers and lawyers. We currently have around 80 clients on annual subscriptions to our service.
As would be expected, our client base is spread around the world with the largest concentrations in London, New York, Tokyo, Seoul, Athens, Hamburg, Hong Kong and Singapore.
How do you ensure that the ship prices you offer are accurately reflecting current market conditions?
We constantly test the accuracy of our valuations by comparing our values the day before each clean sale and the sale price. We also are constantly analyzing values across the different sectors to make sure are in line with current ongoing negotiations.
Our accuracy level is published monthly on our website.
Are you planning on the introduction of new ship types, to be added in the valuations you provide?
Yes, as per above, we are extending to sub handy/feedermax vessels and offshore types of vessels.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 07 March 13
PANAMAX : POSITIVE TREND; CAPESIZE : GRADUALLY SLIDE - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week and rates ticking upwards. The USG-Feast was at USD 22k and Black sea-feast was at USD 12k. The ...
Tuesday, 05 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 20.77 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 4 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,631,562 MT of thermal and coking coal for a week ended 0700 hours 4 March 2013, Newcas ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS; CHINA CONTRACTS FALL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 0.75 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
FREIGHT MARKET FROM INDONESIA EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – The freight market has been fairly firm this week except for cape size index.
The BDI was up by 4.64 points closing at 776 p ...
Thursday, 28 February 13
INDIA HAS INCREASED CUSTOMS DUTY AND COUNTERVAILING DUTY FOR POWER PLANT COAL
COALspot.com : The government of India raised basic customs duty and countervailing duty on steam coal. In the meantime government has reduced& ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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