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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mainly as a result of continued grwoth in emerging economies.According to the bank's analysis, dry bulk demand is expected to conclude 2012 with a rise of 4.1%, while the estimates for 2013 are looking for a further rise of 7.2%. Countries like India and China are expected to play a major role towards this development, with China's appetite for raw materials like iron ore and coal being among the main reasons for this. As a result of this codependence, should China's economy experience any slowdown, these projections of dry bulk demand growth will be impacted negatively.
In terms of ship values, DVB said that 2012 would close with average newbuilding prices posting a significant reduction over 2011 prices, while second hand values would post an even sharper decline. According to the analysis, vessels over 15 years old are the most vulnerable in terms of price reductions, since more and more newbuildings are entering the global fleet. Additionally, new regulations, like EEDI, will add to the pressure faced by older tonnage, as charterers will use these to bring down rates and consequently asset values, resulting in a two or even a multi-tiered market. As a result, the bank's analysts indicated that they don't expect the trend of falling newbuilding prices to end before 2014 kicks in, with huge oversupply still a dominating force in the dry bulk market.
As a result of the huge orderbook, freight rates are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2013. exactly how much will this pressure be, will depend on the way that the orderbook and deliveries progress during the year. In the worst case senario, rates could once again bottom out by the end of 2014, should the world economy be stabilised and avoid slipping into yet another period of recession. DVB advised shipowners to reduce contracting and increase scrapping activity, if they wish to keep earnings above operating expenses.
After all, the level of growth of the dry bulk fleet has been stellar, with record breaking newbuilding deliveries for every year since the start of 2009. According to the analysis, since October of 2011, the dry bulk fleet has increased by an impressive 75 million dwt or 758 vessels, representing a growth rate of 13%. Today, the orderbook stands at 130 million dwt, equating to about 20% of current fleet. "The orderbook for all Capesize vessels is large with the fleet relatively young having an average age about 7 years. Merely 3.5% of the Capesize fleet is over 25 years of age. The VLBC and ULBC fleets are expanding rapidly, mainly due to the Vale vessels being delivered. These vessels entering the fleet will undoubtedly have a huge negative impact on all Large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and will impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well" said DVB in its report.
Meanwhile, the room for limiting supply through more scrapping activity has been steadily getting smaller and smaller. Scrapping was moderate in 2009 with 256 vessels equating to 10.9 million dwt scrapped, after negligible scrapping during 2007 and 2008. In 2010, scrapping slowed down again as the markets improved slightly. Only 121 vessels amounting to 5.3 million dwt were sold for demolition. Since the start of 2011, scrapping activity has picked up significantly, with 385 vessels totalling 23.3 million dwt were sent to the breakers. In 2012, a further 406 vessels of 25.9 million dwt had already been decommissioned and broken apart, a couple of months before the year ended, meaning that a new record had been set. While until 2010, scrapping was mainly concentrated in the Handysize Sub-Sector, scrapping has been more uniform across Sub-Sectors since 2011. "With market fundamentals remaining weak due to demand-supply imbalance, high rate of scrapping is required to offset the deliveries seen in the past four years as well as the current orderbook" DVB concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 24 December 12
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT DECISION MAY FURTHER DELAY THE ISSUANCE OF NEW MINING BUSINESS LICENCES - TJEN SHE SIUNG
COALspot.com - In November 2012 the Constitutional Court of Indonesia issued a decision on amendments to certain provisions under the Mining Law No. ...
Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as thi ...
Sunday, 23 December 12
Q4' 2013 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP, US$ 3.40 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2013 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 1.94 percent M-M and WoW by 1.57percent but lost 0.35 ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
SECOND HAND VESSELS ENJOY HIGH DEMAND AS PRICES ARE ATTRACTIVE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the year is closing to its end, activity in the second hand vessel market has been more than high. Ship owners are looking to ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
FALL IN CAPE AND PANAMAX RATES DRAG BDI INDEX - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market further softened this week closing at 700 points (down by 10.71 pct). The cape index continued to fall and w ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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