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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 24 January 13
INDO - INDIA NOW AT APS $ 8K + BB USD 90000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remains stable as supply of tonnage is still in excess of demand. USG- Far east fixed at $18k and CONT-FEAST at $ 11k. Pa ...
Thursday, 24 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been on the downside during the past couple of days, mainly as a result of the tropical storm which forced ports to close do ...
Tuesday, 22 January 13
PORT OF ANTWERP HANDLES 7.0 PERCENT MORE COAL IN 2012 Y-Y
COALspot.com - The port of Antwerp handled 184,134,516 tonnes of freight last year.
This represents a drop of 1.6% compared with 2011, when the v ...
Monday, 21 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 10.21 PERCENT LESS COAL W/E 21 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,804,152 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 21 January 2013, Newca ...
Monday, 21 January 13
PANAMAX DRY BULK CARRIERS AND AFRAMAX TANKERS PROVED TO BE THE "WEAPON OF CHOICE" FOR MOST SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With ship financing getting ever so difficult to procure during the past year or so, ship owners had to get creative in order to persuade banks and ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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