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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 08 February 13
NORTH P&I CLUB WARNS OF LIQUEFACTION RISK FOR BAUXITE CARGOES
The ‘A’ rated 170 million GT North P&I club has warned shipowners carrying bauxite aluminium ore cargoes that they have the potentia ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
CHINA NDRC APPROVED 10 BILLION YUAN POWER GENERATION PROJECTS
NDRC of China currently announced that some of power grid and power station in Jiangxu, Sichuan and Anhui Province would be newly constructed or ext ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
CAPESIZE : MORE ACTIVE WEEK IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remained stable with no significant movement in rates. Rates from USG to FEast were around USD 18k and Black Sea to Feast ...
Thursday, 07 February 13
WEAK STEEL MARKET MEANS IRON ORE RALLY LIKELY TO END SOON - FITCH
The sharp rebound in iron ore prices over the last couple of months will hurt margins at non-integrated steel producers in the first quarter of 2013 ...
Tuesday, 05 February 13
THE SHIPPING SECTOR IS " NAVIGATING IN STORMY WATERS" - PWC
The vulnerabilities of the global economy have been exposed and have more than played their part in making 2011 one of the worst years of shipping i ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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