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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 21 February 13
SPRING COAL PROCUREMENT 2013 IS ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE
In 2012, “Steady Growth” had set the keynote for China’s economic development. Guided by the principle of progressing steadily, do ...
Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Roth ...
Tuesday, 19 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 38.65 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 1,820,559 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 February 2013, Newc ...
Monday, 18 February 13
78.75 MILLION TONS OF COAL RESERVES ARE NEWLY PROVEN IN WUGANG HUNAN PROVINCE
COALspot.com - Recently, Wugang City, known as the CHINA hundred key coal producing cities, achieved new breakthroughs in coal exploration: deep coa ...
Sunday, 17 February 13
STEEL DEMAND WILL HELP TO PUSH UP FREIGHT RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady week ended 15 February 2013.
The BDI was slightly up by 0.67 pct closing at 753 points ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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