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Thursday, 20 December 12
COAL CLOSING IN ON OIL AS WORLD'S TOP ENERGY SOURCE BY 2017


COALspot.com - Coal’s share of the global energy mix continues to rise, and by 2017 coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world’s top energy source, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today as it released its annual Medium-Term Coal Market Report (MCMR).

According to IEA, coal’s share of global energy mix to continue rising, with coal closing in on oil as world’s top energy source by 2017.

IEA’s Medium-Term Coal Market Report sees coal demand increasing in nearly every region of the world except US, where shale gas is displacing coal

The report further said, although the growth rate of coal slows from the breakneck pace of the last decade, global coal consumption by 2017 stands at 4.32 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (btoe), versus around 4.40 btoe for oil, based on IEA medium-term projections. The IEA expects that coal demand will increase in every region of the world except in the United States, where coal is being pushed out by natural gas.

“Thanks to abundant supplies and insatiable demand for power from emerging markets, coal met nearly half of the rise in global energy demand during the first decade of the 21st Century,” said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven.

“This report sees that trend continuing. In fact, the world will burn around 1.2 billion more tonnes of coal per year by 2017 compared to today – equivalent to the current coal consumption of Russia and the United States combined. Coal’s share of the global energy mix continues to grow each year, and if no changes are made to current policies, coal will catch oil within a decade.”

According to report, China and India lead the growth in coal consumption over the next five years. The report says China will surpass the rest of the world in coal demand during the outlook period, while India will become the largest seaborne coal importer and second-largest consumer, surpassing the United States.

The report further said, as US coal demand declines, more US coal is going to Europe, where low CO2 prices and high gas prices are increasing the competitiveness of coal in the power generation system. This trend, however, is close to peaking, and coal demand by 2017 in Europe is projected to drop to levels slightly above those in 2011, due to increasing renewable generation and decommissioning of old coal plants.

Amid concern about the impact of Chinese uncertainty on coal markets, the report offers a Chinese Slowdown Case. This scenario shows that even if Chinese GDP growth were to slow to a 4.6% average over the period, coal demand would still increase both globally and in China – indicating that coal demand is not likely to stop growing even with more bearish economic perspectives.

Indonesian coal will be benefitted for at least next five years, as China and India to lead the growth in coal consumption. Chinese and Indian buyers always prefered for Indonesian coal due to availability of  multi-grade coal and freight benefits.

The current the low coal prices is expected to be turn around to positive once the China and India return to its normal demand level.

Year 2013, is expected to be seller’s year once China and India back to market with their inquiries and coal producing countries control their coal output.



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