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Wednesday, 12 December 12
69.23 PERCENT OF END-USERS ARE BELIEVE, COAL PRICES ARE IN UPWARD TREND
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price for December’ 12 has gained US cents 31 per MT M-o-M.
The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in December gained 0.38 percent compared to last month.
The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia sets the coal’s spot price for December 2012 at US$ 81.75 per ton, 0.38 percent higher than November 2012 bench mark Price.
This coal benchmark price was calculated based on calorific value of 6,322 kcal/kg (GAR), stated to be using formula based on the November 2012 index average of ICI-1 (Indonesia Coal Index) 25%, Platts-5900 25%, NEX (Newcastle Export Index) 25%, and GC (globalCoal Index) 25%.
Assessment basis of coal price reference was calculated considering coal with GCV (GAR) 6,322 kcal/kg, Total Moisture (arb) 8.00%, Total Sulphur 0.8% (arb), Ash Content 15 % (arb) and delivery free on Board (FOB) Vessel basis and applicable for spot contract, delivery between 1 – 31 December 2012.
The government of Indonesia has been publishing a monthly coal reference price (HBA & HPB) since January 2009 to be used by coal producers for all spot and term contracts. However the full implementation of HBA has started only since September 2011.
The December 2012 HBA is 27.44% percent or $ 30.92 lower Y-o-Y basis.
The price was only valid for the spot price (loading on or before 31 December 2012), while as for term price (up to 12 months supplies), the average reference price (HPB) of the previous 3 months will be used to determine the selling price. (50% of latest available month HPB, 30% of one month prior HPB and 20% of two months prior HPB).
Government also declared reference price for eight brands of Indonesia's coal, which are most commonly traded in the market. Those eight brands are acted as the benchmark and used to calculate other 62 coal types with a quality similar to the coal price markers.
For sales in barge, the reference price is reduced by barging and transshipment costs from barge to vessel.
The coal reference price, which has been established to fulfill the requirement of mining law 04/2009 and latest ministerial decree 17/2010 and also aims to increase government revenue from royalties from coal producers. According to industry, all existing coal supply agreements with Indonesian coal mining companies have been revised to comply with new coal pricing regulation, which was fully implemented on 23 September 2011.
The government has recently introduced export duty for unprocessed minerals but coal was missing in the recent regulation. According to Mining law 04/2009, the coal producers of Indonesia were asked to add value for their product such as washing, crushing, blending and upgrading to have a higher-value product prior to eye on the export market and avoid proposed export ban.
Supreme court of Indonesia also recently scrapped a government’s ban on the export of unprocessed minerals.
According to local media reports, the court had ordered the government to withdraw four chapters in the regulation, including one chapter limiting the exports of raw minerals since May 6. According to Ministerial Decree No. 7 on mineral processing, mining companies would only be granted mineral ore export permits after receiving CNC for their business licenses as well as showing commitment to establish smelters or cooperate with other companies to process their mineral ores for export.
According to suppliers as well as buyers of Indonesian coal, the prices are seems to be moving up-ward direction this month. January 2013 shipments also showing a positive move. The Chinese buyers are also in the market for 4200 GAR coal and Indian buyers in the market for 5200 GAR coal.
“ A Chinese buyer is willing to buy up to 4 -5 shipments of 4200 GAR coal for loading from January 2013. However the bids are from buyers are still very tight to match”, said a supplier.
According to our weekly opinion poll, Indonesian suppliers and buyers are in the same view about Q1’ 13 price trend.
69.23 Percent of end-users are believing that, Q1' 2013 coal prices will be better than, last quarter of 2012 prices. In the meantime, 56 percent of Indonesian coal producers are also believe that, Q1' 2013 coal price trend will bring them a fortune in 2013.
68.75 percent of coal traders, who really understand the heartbeat of real coal market movement also in view with producers and end-Users. The market players who are used to deal with Indonesian coal are in positive view about next coal price trend.
Q1’ 2013 really going to be supplier’s market ? Let’s wait for another 20 days to see the real corrections. We still believe 1st half of 2013 is for buyers market .
Click here for complete Indonesian coal reference prices since January 2009.(cs)
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