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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 08 November 12
LARGE ECO SUPRA : INDO - INDIA NOW FIXED AT USD 11K FOR DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic market continues to remain weak with rates further softening on FH. Rates from USG to Feast were around USD 14k and Black Sea to ...
Thursday, 08 November 12
DRY BULK MARKET RETREATS AGAIN ON HIGHER SHIP SUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In further evidence of a latest round of dry bulk shipping misery, the industry's benchmark fell for the 11th straight session yesterday, as the in ...
Thursday, 08 November 12
JOIN CHINA STEAM COAL SUPPLY - DEMAND FORUM
Join China Steam Coal Supply-Demand Forum & Visit Shenhua Yudean Zhuhai Port Coal Terminal
Press Release - Organized by CBI BIZ and suppo ...
Wednesday, 07 November 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY ON A STEADY PACE PRIOR TO THE END OF THE YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuilding orders, which to many involved in the shipping industry, are the main reason of today's low freight rates and subsequent financial prob ...
Tuesday, 06 November 12
NOVEMBER 2012 HBA $35.21 LOWER THAN A YEAR AGO
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price for November’ 12 has lost US$ 4.60 per MT M-o-M.
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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